Will Suzzanna Tanner advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$43
7 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
451 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Carmela Conroy advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary
Will Carmela Conroy advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary?: Carmela Conroy
KXWAPRIMARY-0526-CCON
Cluster 2
Will Spencer Meline advance in the 2026 WA-08 primary
Will Spencer Meline advance in the 2026 WA-08 primary?: Spencer Meline
KXWAPRIMARY-0826-SMEL
Cluster 3
Will Bob Hagglund advance in the 2026 WA-08 primary
Will Bob Hagglund advance in the 2026 WA-08 primary?: Bob Hagglund
KXWAPRIMARY-0826-BHAG
Cluster 4
Will Andrew Bartleson advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary
Will Andrew Bartleson advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary?: Andrew Bartleson
KXWAPRIMARY-0526-ABAR
Cluster 5
Will Kevin Fagan advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary
Will Kevin Fagan advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary?: Kevin Fagan
KXWAPRIMARY-0526-KFAG
Cluster 6
Will Matthew Hayes advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary
Will Matthew Hayes advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary?: Matthew Hayes
KXWAPRIMARY-0526-MHAY
Cluster 7
Will Michael McGarr advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary
Will Michael McGarr advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary?: Michael McGarr
KXWAPRIMARY-0526-MMCG
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' estimate that Suzzanna Tanner will secure enough votes to advance past the primary stage in Washington's 3rd Congressional District during the 2026 election cycle. At 46%, the market suggests roughly even odds she clears this threshold, indicating genuine uncertainty about her viability as a candidate. The primary result itself will be the decisive factor—determined by actual vote counts on election day. Factors influencing the current estimate likely include her name recognition, fundraising capacity relative to other candidates, polling numbers if available, and historical performance of candidates with similar profiles in the district. The low trading volume ($20 in 24 hours) suggests limited market depth, meaning the probability could shift notably with additional participant interest or new information about candidate positioning or endorsements.
- ›Vote share threshold required to advance and total number of candidates competing in the WA-03 primary
- ›Campaign fundraising totals and spending relative to competing candidates
- ›Polling data or internal survey results showing Tanner's support levels among district voters
- ›Endorsements from established party figures or organizations that signal electoral viability
- ›Election date (August 2026 primary) and any significant campaign events or debates scheduled before voting
What moved the line
- Aug 7Spencer Meline↑51pp16→67¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Carmela Conroy↓36pp77→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Carmela Conroy↑33pp45→78¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Carmela Conroy↓25pp78→53¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Carmela Conroy↑24pp53→77¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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