Will Russell Fry endorse Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race before Aug 25, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 90% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
90%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
1 contracts
Top contract
90¢
$8K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russell Fry endorse Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race before Aug 25, 2026
Analysis
This market measures whether Russell Fry, a U.S. Representative from South Carolina, will publicly endorse Darline Graham for the state's 2026 Senate seat by August 25, 2026. Currently, markets estimate a 59% probability that Fry makes no endorsement by that date, 25% he backs Graham, and 19% he endorses Ralph Norman. The outcome depends largely on whether Fry sees political advantage in entering the race, his relationship with each candidate, and timing pressures as the election approaches. The August 25 deadline is the key trigger—with roughly two weeks remaining, any public endorsement or statement from Fry would significantly shift probabilities. His silence through mid-August suggests reluctance to commit, but late-campaign dynamics could still prompt a move.
- ›Russell Fry has not publicly committed to endorsing any candidate in the South Carolina Senate race as of mid-August 2026
- ›Fry's prior statements or public positioning toward Graham and Norman will constrain his choices
- ›Fundraising, polling, or endorsement announcements by other major figures in the race may create pressure or opportunity for Fry to enter
- ›Any explicit statement from Fry about his endorsement plans before August 25 would immediately resolve uncertainty
- ›The timeline (12 days remaining) limits windows for campaign activity and media coverage needed to amplify an endorsement
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (90% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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