Will it be reported that the DOJ reopens or initiates a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell before Jun 1, 2026
Leader sits at 15% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Before Aug 1, 2026
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will it be reported that the DOJ reopens or initiates a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell before
Will it be reported that the DOJ reopens or initiates a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXDOJPOWELL-27-AUG01
Will it be reported that the DOJ reopens or initiates a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXDOJPOWELL-27-JAN01
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that U.S. Department of Justice investigators will publicly reopen or initiate a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, before January 1, 2027. The 16% probability reflects a relatively low but non-negligible chance of this occurring. Traders appear to be weighing both the political temperature around Powell and the precedent for DOJ scrutiny of sitting Federal Reserve leadership. Key factors moving this probability would include significant policy disagreements between the administration and Powell, new allegations or controversies, or shifts in congressional appetite for oversight. The immediate catalyst would be any public reporting of DOJ investigative activity, which would resolve the question directly. Absent such reporting, the probability will likely track broader political dynamics and Powell's tenure through the specified deadline.
- ›No current public reporting of an active DOJ criminal investigation into Jerome Powell as of mid-2026
- ›Historical rarity of criminal investigations targeting sitting Federal Reserve Chairs provides a baseline reference for assessing probability
- ›Political relationship between the sitting administration and Powell, including any policy conflicts or public criticism, influences likelihood of DOJ action
- ›Contracts show declining probability for earlier resolution (3% by August 2026) versus later window (16% by January 2027), suggesting traders expect low near-term catalysts
- ›Volume on these contracts is minimal ($0 over 24 hours), indicating limited market conviction and sparse information flow driving pricing
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (15% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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