Will it be reported that the DOJ reopens or initiates a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell before Jun 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
86 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will it be reported that the DOJ reopens or initiates a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell before Jan 1, 2027
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that news outlets will report the Department of Justice has opened or started a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, before June 1, 2026. The current 3% probability reflects that such an investigation would represent a significant departure from historical precedent and would require substantial political shifts or disclosed evidence of criminal conduct. The main factors maintaining this low level are Powell's tenure as Fed Chair without prior criminal investigations, institutional norms around central bank independence, and the absence of public allegations triggering such an inquiry. This could shift significantly if Congress or media reporting surfaces evidence of misconduct, or if political dynamics change materially. The resolution hinges on whether credible reporting explicitly states the DOJ has initiated or reopened a criminal investigation—not merely civil inquiries, administrative reviews, or congressional scrutiny.
- ›No criminal investigation into Powell has been publicly reported as of October 2026, and historical precedent shows U.S. Federal Reserve chairs are rarely subjects of DOJ criminal investigations
- ›Changes in presidential administration or congressional control could alter political pressure on the DOJ to pursue investigations into Fed leadership
- ›Public disclosure of evidence or credible allegations of criminal conduct by Powell would serve as the primary catalyst for investigation likelihood
- ›Congressional testimony, inspector general reports, or media investigations into Powell's conduct could trigger renewed DOJ scrutiny or formal inquiry
- ›The resolution depends on explicit reporting that the DOJ initiated or reopened a criminal investigation—mere calls for investigation or civil reviews do not satisfy the condition
Recently closed in fed rate
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- Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 15, 2026last 4% · 5d
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027last 97% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In fed rate
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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