Will the Democratic party hold exactly 54 Senate seats in the 120th Congress
Leader sits at 78% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below 53
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
53
Spread
70pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$3
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
161 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Democratic party hold
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 53 Senate seats in the 120th Congress?: 53
KXDSENATESEATSH-27-E53
Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 53 Senate seats in the 120th Congress?: Below 53
KXDSENATESEATSH-27-B53
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 54 Senate seats in the 120th Congress?: 54
KXDSENATESEATSH-27-E54
Analysis
This market reflects a 77% probability that Democrats will hold fewer than 53 Senate seats when the 120th Congress convenes, implying only a 23% combined chance they hold 53 or 54 seats. The prediction is heavily weighted toward Democratic losses, likely driven by the party's narrow current Senate margin and historical patterns of midterm seat losses for the majority party. Upcoming Senate elections and any shifts in competitive races would be the primary catalyst for repricing this outcome. Key factors include the specific number of toss-up races in the current cycle, which states have competitive Senate contests, overall national political trends affecting Senate performance, historical data on midterm dynamics, and the specific timeline of when polling data becomes more predictive of actual results.
- ›Current Democratic Senate margin and number of seats they must defend in 2026 elections
- ›Composition and partisan lean of the most competitive Senate races in the cycle
- ›Historical precedent for party-in-power seat losses during midterm elections
- ›Polling trends in key battleground states as election day approaches
- ›The 77% probability significantly exceeds 50%, suggesting market consensus leans toward Democratic losses rather than gains
What moved the line
- Aug 1954↓3pp5→2¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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