Will Eric Braeden win the Outstanding Lead Performer in a Daytime Drama Series
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+2pp
27h ago
24h volume
$20K
16 contracts
Closes
Nov 1, 2027
431 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Lucky Chow win the Outstanding Culinary Cultural Series award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards
Cluster 2
Will Entertainment Tonight win the Outstanding Entertainment News Series award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards
Cluster 3
Will Scott Clifton win the Outstanding Lead Performer in a Daytime Drama Series: Actor award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards
Cluster 4
Will Danielle Chang win the Outstanding Culinary Host award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards
Cluster 5
Will Disney Parks Magical Christmas Day Parade win the Outstanding Technical Direction and Video for a Daytime Program award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards
Cluster 6
Will Live with Kelly and Mark win the Outstanding Art Direction / Set Decoration / Scenic Design for a Daytime Program award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards
Cluster 7
Will Pati’s Mexican Table win the Outstanding Culinary Instructional Series award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards
Cluster 8
Will Steve Burton win the Outstanding Lead Performer in a Daytime Drama Series: Actor award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards
Cluster 9
Will Sean Dominic win the Outstanding Supporting Performance in a Daytime Drama Series: Actor award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards
Cluster 10
Will The Young and the Restless win the Outstanding Directing Team for a Daytime Drama Series award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards
Cluster 11
Will Giovanni Mazza win the Outstanding Emerging Talent in a Daytime Drama Series award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards
Cluster 12
Will The Kelly Clarkson Show win the Outstanding Art Direction / Set Decoration / Scenic Design for a Daytime Program award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards
Cluster 13
Will Extra win the Outstanding Entertainment News Series award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards
Cluster 14
Will Christian Jules Le Blanc win the Outstanding Lead Performer in a Daytime Drama Series: Actor award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards
Cluster 15
Will Thorsten Kaye win the Outstanding Lead Performer in a Daytime Drama Series: Actor award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards
Cluster 16
Will General Hospital win the Outstanding Casting for a Daytime Program award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards
Analysis
This represents the estimated likelihood that Eric Braeden will win the Outstanding Lead Performer in a Daytime Drama Series award at the 2026 Daytime Emmy Awards. At 22%, the probability suggests moderate competition in the category rather than a frontrunner position. Braeden's chances depend on voter preference among daytime drama actors and the strength of competing performances in the category. The primary drivers of this probability are the recognition patterns of the Television Academy's daytime voting members and how his recent work on The Young and the Restless compares to other nominated performers. The Daytime Emmy Awards ceremony will resolve this question when the winner is announced; the exact date of the 2026 ceremony will determine the final outcome.
- ›Eric Braeden's nomination status and eligibility in the Outstanding Lead Performer category for the relevant Emmy submission period
- ›Historical voting patterns of Television Academy daytime members across multiple years in this specific acting category
- ›The number and caliber of competing nominees in the Outstanding Lead Performer category
- ›Braeden's tenure and prominence on The Young and the Restless relative to other nominated performers' visibility
- ›Any recent industry recognition or awards from competing ceremonies that may signal Emmy voter sentiment
What moved the line
- Aug 27Actor award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards?: Scott Clifton↑8pp22→30¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 27The Kelly Clarkson Show↑6pp20→26¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 27Actor award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards?: Sean Dominic↑5pp49→54¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 27Lucky Chow↑4pp20→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 27Disney Parks Magical Christmas Day Parade↑3pp13→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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