SimpleFunctions
16 source contracts·Kalshi 16·refreshed just now·Closes Nov 1, 2027 · 431d·2pp · 27h

Will Eric Braeden win the Outstanding Lead Performer in a Daytime Drama Series

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 16 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

24%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

24%

16 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

+2pp

27h ago

24h volume

$20K

16 contracts

Closes

Nov 1, 2027

431 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 32% (2 days, 2 points)Aggregate: 32% on 2026-08-27
Aggregate of 16 contracts · 2d

Bracket families

16 clusters across 16 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Lucky Chow win the Outstanding Culinary Cultural Series award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards

1 contract$2K

Cluster 2

Will Entertainment Tonight win the Outstanding Entertainment News Series award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards

1 contract$2K

Cluster 3

Will Scott Clifton win the Outstanding Lead Performer in a Daytime Drama Series: Actor award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards

1 contract$2K

Cluster 4

Will Danielle Chang win the Outstanding Culinary Host award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards

1 contract$2K

Cluster 5

Will Disney Parks Magical Christmas Day Parade win the Outstanding Technical Direction and Video for a Daytime Program award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards

1 contract$2K

Cluster 6

Will Live with Kelly and Mark win the Outstanding Art Direction / Set Decoration / Scenic Design for a Daytime Program award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards

1 contract$2K

Cluster 7

Will Pati’s Mexican Table win the Outstanding Culinary Instructional Series award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards

1 contract$1K

Cluster 8

Will Steve Burton win the Outstanding Lead Performer in a Daytime Drama Series: Actor award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards

1 contract$1K

Cluster 9

Will Sean Dominic win the Outstanding Supporting Performance in a Daytime Drama Series: Actor award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards

1 contract$979

Cluster 10

Will The Young and the Restless win the Outstanding Directing Team for a Daytime Drama Series award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards

1 contract$940

Cluster 11

Will Giovanni Mazza win the Outstanding Emerging Talent in a Daytime Drama Series award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards

1 contract$920

Cluster 12

Will The Kelly Clarkson Show win the Outstanding Art Direction / Set Decoration / Scenic Design for a Daytime Program award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards

1 contract$903

Cluster 13

Will Extra win the Outstanding Entertainment News Series award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards

1 contract$203

Cluster 14

Will Christian Jules Le Blanc win the Outstanding Lead Performer in a Daytime Drama Series: Actor award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards

1 contract$200

Cluster 15

Will Thorsten Kaye win the Outstanding Lead Performer in a Daytime Drama Series: Actor award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards

1 contract$200

Cluster 16

Will General Hospital win the Outstanding Casting for a Daytime Program award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards

1 contract$130

Analysis

This represents the estimated likelihood that Eric Braeden will win the Outstanding Lead Performer in a Daytime Drama Series award at the 2026 Daytime Emmy Awards. At 22%, the probability suggests moderate competition in the category rather than a frontrunner position. Braeden's chances depend on voter preference among daytime drama actors and the strength of competing performances in the category. The primary drivers of this probability are the recognition patterns of the Television Academy's daytime voting members and how his recent work on The Young and the Restless compares to other nominated performers. The Daytime Emmy Awards ceremony will resolve this question when the winner is announced; the exact date of the 2026 ceremony will determine the final outcome.

  • Eric Braeden's nomination status and eligibility in the Outstanding Lead Performer category for the relevant Emmy submission period
  • Historical voting patterns of Television Academy daytime members across multiple years in this specific acting category
  • The number and caliber of competing nominees in the Outstanding Lead Performer category
  • Braeden's tenure and prominence on The Young and the Restless relative to other nominated performers' visibility
  • Any recent industry recognition or awards from competing ceremonies that may signal Emmy voter sentiment

What moved the line

  • Aug 27Actor award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards?: Scott Clifton8pp2230¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 27The Kelly Clarkson Show6pp2026¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 27Actor award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards?: Sean Dominic5pp4954¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 27Lucky Chow4pp2024¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 27Disney Parks Magical Christmas Day Parade3pp1316¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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