Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 62 million daily active users in fiscal 2026
Leader sits at 85% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 81%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 60.5 million
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
81¢
Above 13.4 million
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$21
thin orderbook
Closes
May 27, 2027
290 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 63.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 63.5 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-63500000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 64 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 64 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-64000000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 13.6 million paid subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 13.6 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBPAIDSUBS-13600000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 13.4 million paid subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 13.4 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBPAIDSUBS-13400000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 69 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 69 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-69000000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 68.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 68.5 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-68500000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 68 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 68 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-68000000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 67.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 67.5 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-67500000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 67 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 67 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-67000000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 66.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 66.5 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-66500000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 66 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 66 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-66000000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 65.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 65.5 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-65500000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 65 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 65 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-65000000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 64.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 64.5 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-64500000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 63 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 63 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-63000000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 62.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 62.5 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-62500000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 62 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 62 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-62000000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 61.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 61.5 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-61500000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 61 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 61 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-61000000.0
Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 60.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 60.5 million
KXDUOLA-27FEBDAU-60500000.0
Analysis
The market is pricing an 81% probability that Duolingo will report at least 60.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026, reflecting trader expectations that user growth will remain strong but not accelerate dramatically. The company has grown its DAU base consistently through product improvements and marketing, though growth rates naturally moderate at scale. Traders are pricing in sustained usage patterns during a period when language-learning apps face ongoing competition. The key uncertainty is whether user retention holds steady and whether new geographic or demographic expansion drives incremental growth. The outcome will be determined when Duolingo reports its FY2026 financial results, likely in early 2027, at which point actual DAU figures will settle all related contracts. The spread across contracts—from 6% probability above 68 million to 81% above 60.5 million—suggests traders see meaningful uncertainty above the 62-million threshold, with a concentration of probability in the 60–62 million range.
- ›Duolingo's reported DAU figures for the past three quarters, compared to fiscal 2025 end-of-year baseline, will indicate whether the growth trajectory supports 60.5+ million by fiscal year-end 2026
- ›User retention and engagement metrics (session length, monthly active to daily active ratio) from competitor reports and industry surveys can reveal whether market saturation or churn pressures are intensifying
- ›Duolingo's capital allocation decisions and marketing spend efficiency in H2 2026 directly influence whether DAU growth accelerates, plateaus, or declines toward year-end
- ›Geographic expansion announcements or product launches (e.g., new language offerings or feature rollouts) typically precede or accompany material DAU changes
- ›The company's year-over-year DAU growth rate in Q2/Q3 2026 earnings reports will be the most direct leading indicator of whether 62 million DAU is reachable by FY2026 close
What moved the line
- Aug 5Above 61 million↑5pp70→75¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Above 61.5 million↑5pp67→72¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Above 62 million↑5pp62→67¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Above 62 million↑5pp67→72¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Above 62.5 million↑5pp56→61¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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