SimpleFunctions
17 source contracts·Kalshi 17·refreshed just now·Closes Dec 31, 2026 · 100d

Will Amber Glenn finish 3rd Place on Dancing with the Stars Season 35

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 17 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

9%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

9%

17 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$393

17 contracts

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

100 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 14% (12 days, 12 points)Aggregate: 14% on 2026-09-19
Aggregate of 17 contracts · 12d

Bracket families

10 clusters across 17 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Jenna Dewan finish” vs “Will Harry Shum Jr. finish”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will Jenna Dewan finish

2 contracts$160

Cluster 2

Will Harry Shum Jr. finish

2 contracts$61

Cluster 3

Will Jackson Olson finish

2 contracts$41

Cluster 4

Will Amber Glenn finish

2 contracts$26

Cluster 5

Will Ezra Frech finish

2 contracts$26

Cluster 6

Will Taylor Hanson finish

2 contracts$24

Cluster 7

Will Connor Wood finish

2 contracts$10

Cluster 8

Will Maura Higgins finish 2nd Place on Dancing with the Stars Season 35

1 contract$34

Cluster 9

Will Julia Stiles finish 3rd Place on Dancing with the Stars Season 35

1 contract$10

Cluster 10

Will Tatyana Ali finish 3rd Place on Dancing with the Stars Season 35

1 contract$0

Analysis

This represents the likelihood that Amber Glenn finishes in exactly third place on Dancing with the Stars Season 35. The 3% probability reflects that third-place finishes are relatively rare outcomes in a competition with multiple possible finishing positions, and Amber Glenn competes against other cast members for the top spots. The resolution will be determined by the final results of the season's elimination voting and judge scores, which typically concludes in late November or early December 2026. Key factors affecting this probability include Glenn's performance consistency throughout the season, audience voting patterns, judge scoring tendencies, the overall skill distribution among other contestants, and whether any elimination shocks reshape the expected top-three finishers.

  • Amber Glenn's dance skill level and performance trajectory relative to other Season 35 contestants
  • Historical Dancing with the Stars voting patterns and whether they correlate with judge scores or audience preference
  • The typical placement distribution for celebrities in third place versus other finishing positions across recent DWTS seasons
  • Potential early eliminations or unexpected departures that would alter the pool of likely finalists
  • Season 35 finale date and final elimination results scheduled for approximately November-December 2026

What moved the line

  • Sep 17Ezra Frech26pp329¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 18Ezra Frech21pp298¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 18Jenna Dewan10pp818¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 18Maura Higgins10pp313¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 18Harry Shum Jr.9pp514¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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