What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call
Leader sits at 68% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 66%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
China / Chinese
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
66¢
Chess
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
150 days
Venue
Kalshi
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call
What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: McDonald's
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDUOL-26AUG05-MCDO
What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Luckin Coffee
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDUOL-26AUG05-LUCK
What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Speaking Adventure
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDUOL-26AUG05-SPEAK
What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tutor
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDUOL-26AUG05-TUTO
What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Free Trial
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDUOL-26AUG05-FREE
What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Spotify
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDUOL-26AUG05-SPOT
What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: LinkedIn
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDUOL-26AUG05-LINK
What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Asia
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDUOL-26AUG05-ASIA
What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Flashcard
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDUOL-26AUG05-FLAS
What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: 100 Million
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDUOL-26AUG05-100
What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: China / Chinese
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDUOL-26AUG05-CHIN
What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: ChatGPT
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDUOL-26AUG05-CHAT
What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Music
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDUOL-26AUG05-MUSI
What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Chess
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDUOL-26AUG05-CHES
Analysis
This probability measures traders' expectation that Duolingo will discuss chess features during their next earnings call, currently priced at 66%. The high confidence reflects chess's recent prominence in the company's product roadmap and marketing strategy. Market traders are weighing whether chess will be mentioned as a strategic initiative against the possibility that the company discusses other feature developments or business priorities instead. The primary catalyst is Duolingo's next scheduled earnings call, when management will provide guidance on recent product launches and user engagement metrics. Key resolution drivers include the company's emphasis on gamification features, competitive positioning against other language platforms, and whether chess maintains sufficient user adoption to warrant executive-level discussion.
- ›Chess was launched or significantly promoted as a Duolingo feature recently, making it a plausible earnings-call topic given typical executive commentary on new products
- ›The 66% probability places chess discussion as the most likely single outcome among 14 distinct contract options, suggesting meaningful but not overwhelming trader conviction
- ›Trading volume on the Chess contract ($238 in 24-hour volume) is higher than several runner-up outcomes but lower than Free Trial ($511), indicating mixed market confidence
- ›The narrow gap between Chess (66¢) and China/Chinese (65¢) suggests traders view multiple feature categories as nearly equally likely to be mentioned
- ›Resolution depends on specific language and emphasis during the earnings call rather than mere product existence, requiring careful determination of what constitutes mentioning chess
What moved the line
- Jul 31China / Chinese↑33pp36→69¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Asia↑30pp34→64¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Chess↑27pp35→62¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Music↑26pp21→47¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Tutor↑21pp40→61¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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