SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·11 source contracts·Kalshi 11·refreshed just now·Closes Dec 31, 2026 · 191d·4pp · 12h

What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call

Leader sits at 93% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 92%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

93%

Portfolio

runner-up 92¢leader 93¢

Outcomes

11

winner-take-all

Runner-up

92¢

Anthropic

Spread

1pp

contested

24h volume

$8K

modest

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

191 days

Venue

Kalshi

11 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayPortfolio: 81% (2 days, 2 points)Portfolio: 81% on 2026-06-23Anthropic: 88% (2 days, 2 points)Anthropic: 88% on 2026-06-23Inventory: 46% (2 days, 2 points)Inventory: 46% on 2026-06-23
Portfolio81¢Anthropic88¢Inventory46¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call

11 contracts$8K

Analysis

This prediction reflects market expectations that Micron Technology will mention Anthropic during their next earnings call, currently priced at 89 cents. The high probability likely reflects Anthropic's recent prominence in AI discussions and Micron's role as a memory supplier to the sector. This probability would shift if Micron's earnings call focuses on other business segments or competitive dynamics, such as inventory levels, smartphone demand, or relationships with other AI companies like Nvidia. The next catalyst is Micron's scheduled earnings announcement, where management commentary on customer concentration, AI-related demand, and supply chain discussions will directly resolve this contract. Until that call occurs, the market is pricing in better-than-even odds that Anthropic receives specific mention.

  • Micron's current customer concentration in AI-related businesses and whether earnings guidance emphasizes specific AI companies
  • Timing and prominence of AI spending cycles relative to Micron's memory product cycles in the quarter being reported
  • Competitive context: whether management discusses relationships with other major AI players (Nvidia at 71¢) or focuses on inventory normalization (37¢)
  • Historical pattern of Micron earnings calls and how frequently they reference specific customer names versus discussing segments generically
  • Market sentiment around Anthropic's funding, product adoption, and visibility among semiconductor supply-chain stakeholders in mid-2026

What moved the line

  • Jun 23Anthropic30pp5888¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 23Nvidia14pp3751¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 23New York5pp2833¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 23Portfolio5pp7681¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 23Inventory4pp5046¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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