What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call
Leader sits at 93% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 92%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Portfolio
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
92¢
Anthropic
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$8K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
191 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call
What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Anthropic
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMU-26JUN24-ANTH
What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Inventory
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMU-26JUN24-INVE
What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Nvidia
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMU-26JUN24-NVID
What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: New York
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMU-26JUN24-NEW
What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Automation
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMU-26JUN24-AUTO
What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Gaming
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMU-26JUN24-GAMI
What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Hyperscaler
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMU-26JUN24-HYPE
What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Portfolio
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMU-26JUN24-PORT
What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Smartphone
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMU-26JUN24-SMAR
What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tariff
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMU-26JUN24-TARI
What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Taiwan
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMU-26JUN24-TAIW
Analysis
This prediction reflects market expectations that Micron Technology will mention Anthropic during their next earnings call, currently priced at 89 cents. The high probability likely reflects Anthropic's recent prominence in AI discussions and Micron's role as a memory supplier to the sector. This probability would shift if Micron's earnings call focuses on other business segments or competitive dynamics, such as inventory levels, smartphone demand, or relationships with other AI companies like Nvidia. The next catalyst is Micron's scheduled earnings announcement, where management commentary on customer concentration, AI-related demand, and supply chain discussions will directly resolve this contract. Until that call occurs, the market is pricing in better-than-even odds that Anthropic receives specific mention.
- ›Micron's current customer concentration in AI-related businesses and whether earnings guidance emphasizes specific AI companies
- ›Timing and prominence of AI spending cycles relative to Micron's memory product cycles in the quarter being reported
- ›Competitive context: whether management discusses relationships with other major AI players (Nvidia at 71¢) or focuses on inventory normalization (37¢)
- ›Historical pattern of Micron earnings calls and how frequently they reference specific customer names versus discussing segments generically
- ›Market sentiment around Anthropic's funding, product adoption, and visibility among semiconductor supply-chain stakeholders in mid-2026
What moved the line
- Jun 23Anthropic↑30pp58→88¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Nvidia↑14pp37→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23New York↑5pp28→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Portfolio↑5pp76→81¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Inventory↓4pp50→46¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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