What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call
Leader sits at 93% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Data Center
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
86¢
Cursor
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
161 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Colossus
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-COLO
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Data Center
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-DATA
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Moon
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-MOON
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Trump
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-TRUM
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Tesla
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-TESL
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: NASA
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-NASA
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Artemis
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-ARTE
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Starmind
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-STAR
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Unlock / Lock Up
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-UNLO
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Mars
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-MARS
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Starbase
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-STARB
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Weather
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-WEAT
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: T-Mobile
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-TMOB
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Nvidia
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-NVID
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: MRV / Mission Robotic Vehicle
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-MRV
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: ISS / International Space Station
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-ISS
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Cursor
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-CURS
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: China / Chinese
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-CHIN
What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Anthropic / OpenAI
KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPCX-26AUG04-ANTH
Analysis
This market reflects traders' assessment that SpaceX will emphasize artificial intelligence or computational infrastructure during their next earnings call, with that outcome priced at 84% likelihood. The leading contract suggests strong market conviction that data center or AI-related capabilities will feature prominently in management's prepared remarks, possibly reflecting recent industry trends around AI infrastructure demand or SpaceX's own computational needs. The runner-up positions for Mars and other topics indicate meaningful uncertainty about which business segment receives primary focus. The next earnings call—typically scheduled 4-6 weeks after the preceding quarter ends—will definitively resolve the question once a transcript becomes available, making the exact date and content of management's opening remarks the primary catalyst. Market pricing could shift substantially based on recent SpaceX contract announcements, industry developments, or signals about which division management plans to highlight.
- ›Current pricing shows 82¢ for data center and 81¢ for 'cursor' outcomes, suggesting traders view AI/computational infrastructure as most probable discussion topic
- ›Mars-related outcome prices at 74¢, indicating secondary but meaningful probability that space exploration goals receive emphasis
- ›Thinner conviction on Moon (45¢) and T-Mobile (53¢) outcomes suggests lower trader confidence in telecommunications or lunar focus
- ›24-hour trading volumes ($1.2-1.4k for leading contracts) reflect moderate but consistent market participation in pricing these outcomes
- ›Resolution depends on literal earnings call transcript content, making exact wording and emphasis of management remarks the determining factor
What moved the line
- Jul 23China / Chinese↑50pp18→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Colossus↑44pp13→57¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Anthropic / OpenAI↑37pp27→64¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Starmind↑29pp15→44¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Moon↑21pp52→73¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 12000000 as of June 30, 2026last 73% · 2d
- Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 7 between Jun 15, 2026 and Jun 21, 2026last 95% · 4d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 6d
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 6d
- Will Janet Mills endorse Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race before May 15, 2026last 3% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.