What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call
Leader sits at 81% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Amazon
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
50¢
Fossil
Spread
31pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
161 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call
What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Solar
KXEARNINGSMENTIONTLN-26AUG05-SOLA
What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Amazon
KXEARNINGSMENTIONTLN-26AUG05-AMAZ
What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Tariff
KXEARNINGSMENTIONTLN-26AUG05-TARI
What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Bitcoin
KXEARNINGSMENTIONTLN-26AUG05-BITC
What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Shapiro
KXEARNINGSMENTIONTLN-26AUG05-SHAP
What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call?: SMR
KXEARNINGSMENTIONTLN-26AUG05-SMR
What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Afford / Affordable / Affordability
KXEARNINGSMENTIONTLN-26AUG05-AFFO
What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Behind the Meter
KXEARNINGSMENTIONTLN-26AUG05-BEHI
What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Headwind
KXEARNINGSMENTIONTLN-26AUG05-HEAD
What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Tailwind
KXEARNINGSMENTIONTLN-26AUG05-TAIL
What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Fossil
KXEARNINGSMENTIONTLN-26AUG05-FOSS
Analysis
This market is asking whether Talen Energy will mention Amazon during their next earnings call, and traders currently assess a 40% probability they will. Talen Energy supplies power to data centers and large industrial customers; Amazon is a major potential customer for their capacity, particularly as AI infrastructure demand grows. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether Amazon discussions will surface in public earnings remarks versus remaining private negotiations. Key drivers include Talen's pipeline announcements, Amazon's publicly stated power needs, and management's tendency to discuss major customer developments. The next earnings call date and any pre-call press releases will likely resolve much of this uncertainty, particularly if Talen announces new customer wins or capacity allocations.
- ›Talen Energy's most recent earnings call transcripts show the frequency and context in which they mention major customers by name
- ›Amazon's disclosed data center expansion plans and power requirements for AI infrastructure in 2026-2027
- ›Talen Energy's typical disclosure practices regarding customer identities—whether they name customers, use generics like 'hyperscaler,' or remain silent
- ›The timing of any signed power purchase agreements or capacity reservations Talen announces before the next earnings date
- ›Recent analyst reports and investor calls discussing Talen's customer pipeline and deal stage for major accounts
What moved the line
- Jul 23Solar↑18pp9→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Shapiro↑13pp16→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Behind the Meter↑11pp31→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Tariff↑10pp11→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Fossil↑9pp23→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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