SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·11 source contracts·Kalshi 11·refreshed just now·Closes Dec 31, 2026 · 161d·41pp · 38h

What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call

Leader sits at 81% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

81%

Amazon

runner-up 50¢leader 81¢

Outcomes

11

winner-take-all

Runner-up

50¢

Fossil

Spread

31pp

contested

24h volume

$7K

modest

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

161 days

Venue

Kalshi

11 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAmazon: 63% (2 days, 2 points)Amazon: 63% on 2026-07-23Fossil: 32% (2 days, 2 points)Fossil: 32% on 2026-07-23Behind the Meter: 42% (2 days, 2 points)Behind the Meter: 42% on 2026-07-23
Amazon63¢Fossil32¢Behind the Meter42¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call

11 contracts$7K

Analysis

This market is asking whether Talen Energy will mention Amazon during their next earnings call, and traders currently assess a 40% probability they will. Talen Energy supplies power to data centers and large industrial customers; Amazon is a major potential customer for their capacity, particularly as AI infrastructure demand grows. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether Amazon discussions will surface in public earnings remarks versus remaining private negotiations. Key drivers include Talen's pipeline announcements, Amazon's publicly stated power needs, and management's tendency to discuss major customer developments. The next earnings call date and any pre-call press releases will likely resolve much of this uncertainty, particularly if Talen announces new customer wins or capacity allocations.

  • Talen Energy's most recent earnings call transcripts show the frequency and context in which they mention major customers by name
  • Amazon's disclosed data center expansion plans and power requirements for AI infrastructure in 2026-2027
  • Talen Energy's typical disclosure practices regarding customer identities—whether they name customers, use generics like 'hyperscaler,' or remain silent
  • The timing of any signed power purchase agreements or capacity reservations Talen announces before the next earnings date
  • Recent analyst reports and investor calls discussing Talen's customer pipeline and deal stage for major accounts

What moved the line

  • Jul 23Solar18pp927¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 23Shapiro13pp1629¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 23Behind the Meter11pp3142¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 23Tariff10pp1121¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 23Fossil9pp2332¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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