Will CSD Independiente del Valle win the Ecuador LigaPro
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 13, 2027
118 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Barcelona SC win the Ecuador LigaPro
Will Barcelona SC win the Ecuador LigaPro?: Barcelona SC
KXECULP-26-BSC
Cluster 2
Will CS Emelec win the Ecuador LigaPro
Will CS Emelec win the Ecuador LigaPro?: CS Emelec
KXECULP-26-CSE
Cluster 3
Will CD Cuenca win the Ecuador LigaPro
Will CD Cuenca win the Ecuador LigaPro?: CD Cuenca
KXECULP-26-CUE
Cluster 4
Will CSD Independiente del Valle win the Ecuador LigaPro
Will CSD Independiente del Valle win the Ecuador LigaPro?: CSD Independiente del Valle
KXECULP-26-IND
Cluster 5
Will LDU Quito win the Ecuador LigaPro
Will LDU Quito win the Ecuador LigaPro?: LDU Quito
KXECULP-26-LDU
Cluster 6
Will CSD Macara win the Ecuador LigaPro
Will CSD Macara win the Ecuador LigaPro?: CSD Macara
KXECULP-26-MAC
Cluster 7
Will SD Aucas win the Ecuador LigaPro
Will SD Aucas win the Ecuador LigaPro?: SD Aucas
KXECULP-26-SDA
Cluster 8
Will CD Tecnico Universitario win the Ecuador LigaPro
Will CD Tecnico Universitario win the Ecuador LigaPro?: CD Tecnico Universitario
KXECULP-26-TEC
Cluster 9
Will CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador win the Ecuador LigaPro
Will CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador win the Ecuador LigaPro?: CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
KXECULP-26-UNI
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated chance that CSD Independiente del Valle will win the Ecuador LigaPro championship. The 19% probability reflects modest competitive positioning compared to other contenders in what appears to be a competitive league season. The current level is primarily influenced by recent team performance metrics and historical competitiveness. Key factors pushing this probability would include consistent winning streaks, improved goal differential, or favorable head-to-head records against top competitors. The main catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be the accumulation of match results throughout the remainder of the season, with particular attention to performances against higher-ranked contenders like CD Cuenca (36¢) and CS Emelec (33¢). Market pricing suggests Independiente del Valle is neither the favorite nor an outsider, indicating mid-tier competitive status with realistic title chances dependent on sustained performance.
- ›Current league table position and points accumulation relative to CD Cuenca, CS Emelec, and other top-six competitors
- ›Head-to-head results and goal differential in direct matchups against the three highest-probability contenders
- ›Recent form over the past 5-10 matches, including consistency in wins versus draws or losses
- ›Injury status of key players and roster availability for critical upcoming fixtures
- ›Goal-scoring efficiency and defensive record compared to the league average and direct competitors
What moved the line
- Sep 10CS Emelec↑11pp15→26¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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