Will over 1.5 goals be scored
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 56% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
56%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$83
12 contracts
Closes
Aug 5, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will over 0.5 goals be scored
Cluster 2
Will over 1.5 goals be scored
Cluster 3
Will over 2.5 goals be scored
Cluster 4
Will over 3.5 goals be scored
Cluster 5
Will over 4.5 goals be scored
Cluster 6
Will over 5.5 goals be scored
Analysis
This market estimates a 6% probability that more than 1.5 goals will be scored in an upcoming match. The extremely low probability suggests expectations of either a low-scoring contest, defensive matchups, or teams with limited offensive capability. Market participants are pricing in a strong likelihood of 0-1 goals total. Key drivers include team form, defensive strength, and recent scoring patterns. The resolution depends on the actual goal count when the match concludes. The 0.5-goal contract trading at 22¢ (versus 17¢ for over 1.5) indicates moderately elevated odds of at least one goal being scored, but a sharp drop-off in probability once crossing the 1.5 threshold suggests minimal confidence in higher-scoring outcomes.
- ›Recent head-to-head records between the teams show a trend toward low-scoring matches or defensive play
- ›Combined team offensive output this season is below average compared to peers in their competition
- ›Defensive injuries, suspensions, or tactical shifts announced in the week preceding the match could shift expectations
- ›The spread between 0.5 and 1.5 goal probabilities (22¢ vs 17¢) indicates market consensus clusters around 0-1 goal range rather than 2+
- ›Weather conditions, venue characteristics, or match timing (e.g., early season fixture) may constrain typical scoring patterns
What moved the line
- Jul 20Over 1.5 goals scored↑30pp59→89¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Over 2.5 goals scored↑24pp50→74¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Over 1.5 goals scored↑13pp69→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Over 3.5 goals scored↑11pp43→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Over 4.5 goals scored↑9pp26→35¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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