Will Harrison Ford win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$155
11 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
493 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
will harrison ford win comedy supporting actor at the emmy awards
Will Harrison Ford win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Harrison Ford
KXEMMYCSACTO-26SEP14-HAR
Cluster 2
will michael urie win comedy supporting actor at the emmy awards
Will Michael Urie win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Michael Urie
KXEMMYCSACTO-26SEP14-MIC
Cluster 3
will paul w. downs win comedy supporting actor at the emmy awards
Will Paul W. Downs win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Paul W. Downs
KXEMMYCSACTO-26SEP14-PAU
Cluster 4
will ebon moss-bachrach win comedy supporting actor at the emmy awards
Will Ebon Moss-Bachrach win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Ebon Moss-Bachrach
KXEMMYCSACTO-26SEP14-EBO
Cluster 5
will tyler james williams win comedy supporting actor at the emmy awards
Cluster 6
will bowen yang win comedy supporting actor at the emmy awards
Will Bowen Yang win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Bowen Yang
KXEMMYCSACTO-26SEP14-BOW
Cluster 7
will nick offerman win comedy supporting actor at the emmy awards
Will Nick Offerman win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Nick Offerman
KXEMMYCSACTO-26SEP14-NIC
Cluster 8
will marcello hernandez win comedy supporting actor at the emmy awards
Will Marcello Hernandez win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Marcello Hernandez
KXEMMYCSACTO-26SEP14-MAR
Cluster 9
will andrew scott win comedy supporting actor at the emmy awards
Will Andrew Scott win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Andrew Scott
KXEMMYCSACTO-26SEP14-AND
Cluster 10
will ben kingsley win comedy supporting actor at the emmy awards
Will Ben Kingsley win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Ben Kingsley
KXEMMYCSACTO-26SEP14-BEN
Cluster 11
will tie win comedy supporting actor at the emmy awards
Will Tie win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Tie
KXEMMYCSACTO-26SEP14-TIE
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Harrison Ford will receive a Comedy Supporting Actor Emmy nomination and win the award in 2026. Ford is 83 years old and has not appeared in television comedies in recent years, which weighs heavily against this outcome. The low probability suggests traders view this as an unlikely scenario, given the typical pool of comedic supporting actors who compete in this category. The 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony, scheduled for September, will definitively resolve this contract. Major factors include whether Ford accepts a prominent comedic TV role before nomination eligibility closes, whether he generates sufficient industry momentum for a nomination, and how competitive the supporting actor field becomes that year. Current market activity shows minimal trading volume, indicating limited conviction among participants.
- ›Harrison Ford has not appeared in a television comedy series in over two decades, with his recent work concentrated on film franchises
- ›Ford would need to secure a prominent supporting comedic role in a qualifying series that airs between June 2025 and May 2026 to be eligible
- ›The Comedy Supporting Actor category typically features ensemble cast members from high-profile network or streaming comedies, not recently retired film actors
- ›Emmy voters historically favor recurring cast members with established comedic chemistry rather than one-off or guest appearances
- ›The 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony in September will determine the actual winner; nomination announcements occur in July
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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