Will Pluribus win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$90
5 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
493 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Pluribus win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards
Will Pluribus win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards?: Pluribus
KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14-PLU
Cluster 2
Will The Pitt win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards
Will The Pitt win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards?: The Pitt
KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14-PIT
Cluster 3
Will Euphoria win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards
Will Euphoria win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards?: Euphoria
KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14-EUP
Cluster 4
Will The Testaments win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards
Will The Testaments win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards?: The Testaments
KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14-TES
Cluster 5
Will Tie win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards
Will Tie win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards?: Tie
KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14-TIE
Analysis
This 22% probability reflects the likelihood that Pluribus wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Drama Series. The outcome depends primarily on the strength of competing shows' critical reception and voting patterns within the Television Academy's membership. Emmy voting typically heavily weights critical acclaim, viewership during the eligibility period, and historical academy preferences. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the Emmy Awards ceremony scheduled for September 2026, when academy voters cast their final ballots. Shifts in the probability before then would likely reflect changes in critical consensus, awards season momentum from other ceremonies (like the Golden Globes or SAG Awards in early 2026), or significant viewership data from competing dramas during the eligibility window.
- ›Pluribus's average critical ratings compared to other nominated dramas during the 2025-2026 eligibility period
- ›Historical Emmy voting patterns showing which drama categories favor new shows versus returning series
- ›Performance of competing dramas at earlier awards ceremonies (Golden Globes, SAG Awards, Critics Choice Awards)
- ›Total viewership and social media engagement metrics for Pluribus relative to nominated competitors
- ›Emmy Academy demographic composition and voting bloc preferences that may favor certain genre or network characteristics
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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