Will Pluribus win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards

30-day trend

Analysis

This 22% probability reflects the likelihood that Pluribus wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Drama Series. The outcome depends primarily on the strength of competing shows' critical reception and voting patterns within the Television Academy's membership. Emmy voting typically heavily weights critical acclaim, viewership during the eligibility period, and historical academy preferences. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the Emmy Awards ceremony scheduled for September 2026, when academy voters cast their final ballots. Shifts in the probability before then would likely reflect changes in critical consensus, awards season momentum from other ceremonies (like the Golden Globes or SAG Awards in early 2026), or significant viewership data from competing dramas during the eligibility window.

• ›Pluribus's average critical ratings compared to other nominated dramas during the 2025-2026 eligibility period
• ›Historical Emmy voting patterns showing which drama categories favor new shows versus returning series
• ›Performance of competing dramas at earlier awards ceremonies (Golden Globes, SAG Awards, Critics Choice Awards)
• ›Total viewership and social media engagement metrics for Pluribus relative to nominated competitors
• ›Emmy Academy demographic composition and voting bloc preferences that may favor certain genre or network characteristics

What moved the line

• Jun 23The Testaments↑9pp3→12¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Pluribus↓4pp19→15¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24The Pitt↓4pp67→63¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 21Pluribus↑3pp16→19¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 19The Testaments↓3pp5→2¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds