Will Liverpool finish in the top 2 in the 2026-27 EPL season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
15 contracts
Closes
Jun 14, 2027
267 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Brighton finish in the top
Cluster 2
Will Manchester United finish in the top
Cluster 3
Will Chelsea finish in the top
Cluster 4
Will Tottenham finish in the top
Cluster 5
Will Hull City finish in the top half in the 2026-27 EPL season
Will Hull City finish in the top half in the 2026-27 EPL season?: Hull City
KXEPLTOP-27TOPHALF-HUL
Cluster 6
Will Crystal Palace finish in the top half in the 2026-27 EPL season
Will Crystal Palace finish in the top half in the 2026-27 EPL season?: Crystal Palace
KXEPLTOP-27TOPHALF-CRY
Cluster 7
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 6 in the 2026-27 EPL season
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 6 in the 2026-27 EPL season?: Aston Villa
KXEPLTOP-27TOP6-AVL
Cluster 8
Will Everton finish in the top 4 in the 2026-27 EPL season
Will Everton finish in the top 4 in the 2026-27 EPL season?: Everton
KXEPLTOP-27TOP4-EVE
Cluster 9
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 in the 2026-27 EPL season
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 in the 2026-27 EPL season?: Liverpool
KXEPLTOP-27TOP4-LFC
Cluster 10
Will Leeds United finish in the top 6 in the 2026-27 EPL season
Will Leeds United finish in the top 6 in the 2026-27 EPL season?: Leeds United
KXEPLTOP-27TOP6-LEE
Cluster 11
Will Brentford finish in the top 4 in the 2026-27 EPL season
Will Brentford finish in the top 4 in the 2026-27 EPL season?: Brentford
KXEPLTOP-27TOP4-BRE
Analysis
The 31% probability reflects the market's assessment that Liverpool has less than a one-in-three chance of finishing in the top two of the English Premier League during the 2026-27 season. This relatively low probability suggests expectations of competitive pressure from multiple established rivals. The main drivers of this forecast are Liverpool's recent squad composition and managerial stability compared to historical performance, alongside the strength of competing clubs like Manchester City, Arsenal, and Chelsea. The probability would shift based on squad changes during the summer 2026 transfer window and performance indicators from the immediately preceding 2025-26 season. Resolution occurs in May 2027 when final league standings are confirmed. Notably, the market assigns 50% probability to Liverpool finishing in the top four, suggesting the gap between top-two and top-four finishes represents meaningful uncertainty about their competitive position.
- ›Liverpool's transfer activity and net squad investment in summer 2026 relative to direct competitors
- ›Final league position and points total achieved in 2025-26 season, particularly relative to current top-four rivals
- ›Managerial changes or player departures at Liverpool or rival clubs between now and season start
- ›Injuries to key players during pre-season or opening months of 2026-27 campaign
- ›Performance of Chelsea, Arsenal, and Manchester City in 2025-26, which would indicate competitive baseline for 2026-27
What moved the line
- Sep 12Hull City↑21pp6→27¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Tottenham↑11pp40→51¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Leeds United↑10pp7→17¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Crystal Palace↓9pp20→11¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Chelsea↓8pp27→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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