Will Charles Leclerc win the F1 Drivers Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14K
4 contracts
Closes
Dec 22, 2026
136 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Lewis Hamilton win the F1 Drivers Championship
Will Lewis Hamilton win the F1 Drivers Championship?: Lewis Hamilton
KXF1-26-LH
Cluster 2
Will Lando Norris win the F1 Drivers Championship
Will Lando Norris win the F1 Drivers Championship?: Lando Norris
KXF1-26-LN
Cluster 3
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the F1 Drivers Championship
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the F1 Drivers Championship?: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
KXF1-26-KA
Cluster 4
Will George Russell win the F1 Drivers Championship
Will George Russell win the F1 Drivers Championship?: George Russell
KXF1-26-GR
Analysis
This probability indicates that market participants assess Charles Leclerc has a 24% chance of winning the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship. The estimate reflects Leclerc's current standing relative to competitors, particularly Lewis Hamilton (12% implied probability), and likely accounts for Ferrari's competitive position in the championship battle at this stage of the season. The probability would shift based on Leclerc's points accumulation in remaining races, Ferrari's technical performance relative to rivals, and whether mechanical failures or strategic errors affect his championship chances. The primary uncertainty resolver will be the championship's final races in late 2026, when the mathematical possibility of victory for each driver becomes clearer based on the points gap and remaining events.
- ›Leclerc's current points deficit to the championship leader and the number of races remaining in the 2026 season
- ›Ferrari's recent race performance trends and reliability compared to other top teams like McLaren and Mercedes
- ›Head-to-head qualifying and race results between Leclerc and other top contenders in recent Grand Prix events
- ›Whether Leclerc's teammate dynamics or team strategy allocations favor his championship push relative to competitors
- ›Upcoming circuit characteristics (street courses vs. high-speed tracks) that may suit Ferrari's car design or Leclerc's driving strengths
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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