Will Charles Leclerc win the F1 Drivers Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$22K
4 contracts
Closes
Dec 22, 2026
180 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Lewis Hamilton win the F1 Drivers Championship
Will Lewis Hamilton win the F1 Drivers Championship?: Lewis Hamilton
KXF1-26-LH
Cluster 2
Will Max Verstappen win the F1 Drivers Championship
Will Max Verstappen win the F1 Drivers Championship?: Max Verstappen
KXF1-26-MV
Cluster 3
Will George Russell win the F1 Drivers Championship
Will George Russell win the F1 Drivers Championship?: George Russell
KXF1-26-GR
Cluster 4
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the F1 Drivers Championship
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the F1 Drivers Championship?: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
KXF1-26-KA
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated chance that Charles Leclerc will finish the 2026 Formula 1 season with the most points. At 19%, the market suggests Leclerc is among the contenders but faces significant competition, likely from drivers at better-performing teams or those with stronger track records this season. The probability is shaped by Ferrari's current competitiveness relative to rivals, Leclerc's performance through the season so far, and his head-to-head matchup against his teammate. The championship will be resolved in late November or early December 2026 when the final races conclude, with each race result updating expectations about the title outcome. Key factors include Ferrari's upgrade trajectory, Leclerc's points total relative to other championship contenders, and whether injuries or technical failures affect his ability to compete in remaining races.
- ›Ferrari's constructors' championship position and relative performance to top teams like Red Bull, Mercedes, and McLaren
- ›Leclerc's current points total compared to his closest rivals at the halfway point or later in the season
- ›Performance consistency: whether Leclerc has finished races strongly or experienced DNFs (retirements) that impact championship math
- ›Head-to-head record against his teammate and direct comparison of their points accumulation
- ›Remaining calendar difficulty: whether upcoming tracks favor Ferrari or disadvantage Leclerc relative to competitors
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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