What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team
Leader sits at 54% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Red Bull Racing
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Mercedes
Spread
35pp
contested
24h volume
$49
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 12, 2027
233 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team
What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team?: Red Bull Racing
KXF1NEXTTEAM-27VER-RED
What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team?: McLaren
KXF1NEXTTEAM-27VER-MCL
What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team?: Retires / No Team
KXF1NEXTTEAM-27VER-NONE
What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team?: Mercedes
KXF1NEXTTEAM-27VER-MER
Analysis
The market currently assigns a 60% probability that Max Verstappen remains with Red Bull Racing for his next F1 contract, with McLaren as the leading alternative at 24%. This reflects Verstappen's established position as Red Bull's lead driver and the team's recent competitive performance, though McLaren's recent improvements and potential driver market shifts create meaningful uncertainty. The probability would rise if Red Bull secures major upgrades or championship success, and would fall if McLaren gains pace or if public statements from Verstappen suggest dissatisfaction. Key resolution events include the 2026-2027 contract announcements and driver market movements during the off-season, typically occurring between September and December. Current low trading volume on the Red Bull outcome suggests limited recent confidence changes, while McLaren contract volume indicates active speculation about potential moves.
- ›Red Bull Racing held Verstappen through 2025-2026 with stated multi-year commitments; contract renewal or expiration timing determines when he becomes available
- ›McLaren's 2024-2026 performance trajectory and driver lineup decisions (Norris, Piastri) directly affect appeal as an alternative destination
- ›Verstappen's public statements regarding team satisfaction, technical direction, or competitive ambitions would shift market expectations materially
- ›2026 F1 power unit changes (new engine regulations) create technical uncertainty that could favor or disadvantage Red Bull relative to competitors
- ›Driver market cascade effects: changes to Hamilton, Leclerc, or other top drivers' team assignments indirectly constrain or expand Verstappen's realistic options
What moved the line
- Jul 20Red Bull Racing↓31pp37→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 18Red Bull Racing↓24pp60→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22McLaren↓16pp19→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16McLaren↓14pp31→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 18Mercedes↑9pp6→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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