Will FanDuel App Downloads for August 2026 be above 100
Leader sits at 58% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 30
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Above 40
Spread
55pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 8, 2026
26 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will FanDuel App Downloads for September 2026 be above
Will FanDuel App Downloads for September 2026 be above 30 ?: Above 30
KXFANDUELAPP-26OCT08-T30
Will FanDuel App Downloads for September 2026 be above 45 ?: Above 45
KXFANDUELAPP-26OCT08-T45
Will FanDuel App Downloads for September 2026 be above 40 ?: Above 40
KXFANDUELAPP-26OCT08-T40
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that FanDuel app downloads will exceed 100 million during August 2026. The 52% probability for downloads above 60 million suggests modest confidence in mid-range performance, while only 5% probability above 100 million indicates significant skepticism about reaching very high download volumes. Download numbers typically fluctuate based on sports calendar events, marketing spend, new feature releases, and competitive activity in the mobile sports betting market. The resolution of this question depends on official download data reported through app store analytics by early September 2026, when August's complete metrics become available. Current market pricing suggests traders view 60-80 million downloads as the most likely range, with the much lower probability at 100+ implying either skepticism about FanDuel's growth trajectory or historical benchmarks showing such volumes are uncommon.
- ›Historical FanDuel August download data from 2024-2025 will establish baseline expectations for seasonal patterns
- ›Sports betting app download volume correlates with major sports events; NFL preseason and late summer betting activity affect August timing
- ›Competitive landscape includes DraftKings, BetMGM, and others launching promotions or new features that could shift market share
- ›App store algorithm changes and paid marketing campaigns directly influence download acquisition rates during any given month
- ›Data source reliability matters: app analytics platforms (Sensor Tower, App Annie) may differ in methodology or have reporting delays affecting final counts
What moved the line
- Sep 9Above 40↓60pp72→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 7Above 40↓49pp73→24¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 8Above 40↑48pp24→72¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 7Above 45↓41pp63→22¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 9Above 45↓40pp43→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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