Will the FAO Food Price Index for May 2026 be above 131.0

30-day trend

Analysis

Prediction markets currently estimate a 94% probability that the FAO Food Price Index for May 2026 will exceed 128.0, with declining confidence at higher thresholds (59% above 131.0, 6% above 136.0). This reflects market expectations about global commodity prices, supply-chain conditions, and weather impacts on key crops. The wide spread across price brackets suggests traders view modest increases as very likely, but sharper spikes as increasingly uncertain. The resolution depends on the FAO's actual May 2026 index release, which typically arrives weeks after month-end. Factors supporting higher readings include persistent input costs and potential supply disruptions; downward pressure could come from improved harvests or weakening demand. The relatively low trading volume on the highest brackets indicates limited consensus on extreme scenarios.

• ›FAO Food Price Index for May 2026 must be published by the FAO before any contract resolves; timing and data quality directly determine outcome
• ›Historical May 2026 index levels relative to April 2026 and the prior-year May 2025 baseline shape whether 128–131 thresholds are breached
• ›Commodity sub-indices (cereals, oils, meat, dairy, sugar) will be weighted equally in the composite; weakness in any major component reduces the overall index
• ›Weather events in spring 2026 affecting major crop regions and harvest expectations will influence market pricing through May
• ›Currency movements relative to USD and geopolitical supply disruptions during May 2026 can shift input cost inflation and trading patterns

What moved the line

• Jun 24Above 127.0↓11pp93→82¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 25Above 130.0↓11pp54→43¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 25Above 127.0↑10pp82→92¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Above 131.0↓9pp36→27¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Above 130.0↓6pp60→54¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds