Will Opensea FDV be above $9999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 14% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$2,000,000,000+
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
$8,000,000,000+
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
103 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Opensea FDV be above $
Will Opensea FDV be above $4999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $5,000,000,000+
KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-4999999999
Will Opensea FDV be above $1999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $2,000,000,000+
KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-1999999999
Will Opensea FDV be above $7999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $8,000,000,000+
KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-7999999999
Will Opensea FDV be above $14999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $15,000,000,000+
KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-14999999999
Will Opensea FDV be above $11999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $12,000,000,000+
KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-11999999999
Will Opensea FDV be above $9999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $10,000,000,000+
KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-9999999999
Analysis
This market estimates a 21% probability that OpenSea's fully diluted valuation will exceed $2 billion by January 1, 2027—roughly 3.5 months away. OpenSea is an NFT marketplace whose valuation is driven by trading volumes, user adoption, and the broader health of the crypto asset market. The current probability reflects skepticism about significant near-term growth, possibly because NFT trading volumes have remained depressed since the 2022 peak and the company faces ongoing competition from decentralized alternatives. The primary catalyst will be OpenSea's trading activity and any major announcements between now and year-end. The market is pricing in lower confidence in FDV growth above $2 billion versus substantially higher valuations ($5B+, $8B+), which trade at single-digit probabilities. Liquidity is modest, suggesting limited speculative interest in extreme price movements.
- ›OpenSea's current estimated FDV relative to the $2 billion threshold and recent valuation changes
- ›NFT trading volume trends from now through December 2026, as transaction activity directly correlates with marketplace valuations
- ›Competitive positioning relative to newer DEX platforms and Blur, which have captured market share from OpenSea
- ›Broader crypto market sentiment and ETH price movements, which strongly influence NFT demand
- ›Any material product updates, fundraising, or strategic announcements from OpenSea before the January 1 resolution date
What moved the line
- Sep 18$8,000,000,000+↑18pp5→23¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19$8,000,000,000+↓15pp23→8¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17$2,000,000,000+↓9pp24→15¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17$5,000,000,000+↓5pp15→10¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17$10,000,000,000+↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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