Will Opensea FDV be above $9999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 24% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$2,000,000,000+
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
$5,000,000,000+
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$20
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
190 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Opensea FDV be above $
Will Opensea FDV be above $1999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $2,000,000,000+
KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-1999999999
Will Opensea FDV be above $9999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $10,000,000,000+
KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-9999999999
Will Opensea FDV be above $7999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $8,000,000,000+
KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-7999999999
Will Opensea FDV be above $4999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $5,000,000,000+
KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-4999999999
Will Opensea FDV be above $14999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $15,000,000,000+
KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-14999999999
Analysis
This contract asks whether OpenSea's fully diluted valuation (FDV) will exceed $10 billion at the start of 2027. The current 13% probability reflects skepticism about such a valuation level within 8 months. The main drivers are OpenSea's trading volume trends, competitive pressure from other NFT marketplaces, and broader crypto market sentiment. A resolution depends on OpenSea's token price and fully diluted share count on January 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM—both inputs are objective and verifiable from blockchain data and official sources. Major catalysts include significant platform updates, changes in NFT market adoption rates, or token listings that would affect the FDV calculation directly.
- ›OpenSea's daily trading volume and market share in the NFT ecosystem as of late 2026
- ›Token price on January 1, 2027 and the total fully diluted supply at resolution time
- ›Competitive developments from rival platforms like Magic Eden, Blur, or new entrants
- ›Broader crypto market conditions and institutional adoption of NFTs in Q4 2026
- ›Any announced token distribution events or changes to OpenSea's tokenomics before resolution
What moved the line
- Jun 21$2,000,000,000+↑6pp20→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18$5,000,000,000+↑3pp12→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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