Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07
Leader sits at 97% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $1.75
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
Above $2.00
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 25, 2026
33 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2.75 at 4 PM ET on Sep 04?: Above $2.75
KXH100WS-26SEP04-2.750
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Sep 04?: Above $3.00
KXH100WS-26SEP04-3.000
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2.5 at 4 PM ET on Sep 04?: Above $2.50
KXH100WS-26SEP04-2.500
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2.25 at 4 PM ET on Sep 04?: Above $2.25
KXH100WS-26SEP04-2.250
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2 at 4 PM ET on Sep 04?: Above $2.00
KXH100WS-26SEP04-2.000
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Oct 02?: Above $4.00
KXH100WS-26OCT02-4.000
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $3.75 at 4 PM ET on Oct 02?: Above $3.75
KXH100WS-26OCT02-3.750
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $3.5 at 4 PM ET on Oct 02?: Above $3.50
KXH100WS-26OCT02-3.500
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $3.25 at 4 PM ET on Oct 02?: Above $3.25
KXH100WS-26OCT02-3.250
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Oct 02?: Above $3.00
KXH100WS-26OCT02-3.000
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2.75 at 4 PM ET on Oct 02?: Above $2.75
KXH100WS-26OCT02-2.750
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2.5 at 4 PM ET on Oct 02?: Above $2.50
KXH100WS-26OCT02-2.500
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2.25 at 4 PM ET on Oct 02?: Above $2.25
KXH100WS-26OCT02-2.250
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2 at 4 PM ET on Oct 02?: Above $2.00
KXH100WS-26OCT02-2.000
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $1.75 at 4 PM ET on Oct 02?: Above $1.75
KXH100WS-26OCT02-1.750
Analysis
This question asks whether NVIDIA H100 cloud compute will cost more than $2 per hour on August 7, 2026. The 92% probability reflects strong market confidence that prices will remain above this threshold. GPU compute pricing has historically been sticky, with prices typically declining gradually rather than sharply. The main factors that could shift this probability are changes in cloud provider pricing strategies, shifts in H100 supply relative to demand, and competitive pressures from newer GPU architectures. The July dates in related contracts suggest traders are tracking early signals of price movements, with the outcome becoming clearer as August approaches and providers finalize their quarterly pricing.
- ›H100 rental rates have remained relatively stable within the $2-3.50/hour range based on recent cloud provider offerings
- ›Supply constraints or demand spikes could pressure prices upward, while new GPU releases (like H200 or competitors) could create downward pricing pressure
- ›Cloud providers typically adjust pricing in discrete steps rather than continuously, making intermediate thresholds predictive of August outcomes
- ›The 33¢ price on the $2.25 threshold (56 days out) versus 92¢ on the $2.00 threshold suggests substantial confidence in prices staying above $2
- ›Historical precedent shows legacy GPU pricing rarely collapses below established baselines within short timeframes, supporting the high probability
What moved the line
- Aug 22Above $2.75↓20pp62→42¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above $2.50↓20pp83→63¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above $3.00↓16pp35→19¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Above $3.00↑12pp27→39¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above $3.00↓10pp39→29¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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