Will the minimum temperature be 52-53° on Apr 22, 2026
Leader sits at 37% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
75° to 76°
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
73° to 74°
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 15, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the minimum temperature
Will the minimum temperature be 69-70° on Jul 17, 2026?: 69° to 70°
KXLOWTCHI-26JUL17-B69.5
Will the minimum temperature be >76° on Jul 17, 2026?: 77° or above
KXLOWTCHI-26JUL17-T76
Will the minimum temperature be <69° on Jul 17, 2026?: 68° or below
KXLOWTCHI-26JUL17-T69
Will the minimum temperature be 75-76° on Jul 17, 2026?: 75° to 76°
KXLOWTCHI-26JUL17-B75.5
Will the minimum temperature be 73-74° on Jul 17, 2026?: 73° to 74°
KXLOWTCHI-26JUL17-B73.5
Will the minimum temperature be 71-72° on Jul 17, 2026?: 71° to 72°
KXLOWTCHI-26JUL17-B71.5
Analysis
This market estimates a 34% chance that the minimum temperature will reach 59–60°F on June 19, 2026. The pricing reflects seasonal weather patterns and historical variance for that date. Temperature predictions depend primarily on atmospheric conditions in the weeks leading up to mid-June and broader climate patterns that emerge closer to the date. The key driver of price movement will be weather forecasts issued 10–14 days before June 19, which have meaningful accuracy for daily minimum temperatures. Currently, the 59–60° range commands the highest contract price, competing with outcomes above 61°F (11¢) and cooler bands in the 55–58° range. Uncertainty will narrow as the forecast date approaches, with major weather system movements or anomalies potentially shifting probabilities significantly.
- ›Historical minimum temperatures on June 19 in the target location and their seasonal distribution
- ›Current and projected atmospheric patterns 2–3 weeks before the resolution date, including pressure systems and jet stream positioning
- ›Weather forecast skill for daily minimum temperatures typically improves materially within 10–14 days of the target date
- ›Competing outcome contracts (>60°, 57–58°, 55–56°) collectively hold 48¢, indicating material uncertainty across the full range
- ›Volume concentration in the 59–60° and >60° contracts ($1,166 vs. $44 in lower-probability ranges) suggests market focus on warmer outcomes
Recently closed in climate
- Will the maximum temperature be >65° on Apr 21, 2026last 31% · 5d
- Will the minimum temperature be >71° on Apr 21, 2026last 35% · 5d
- Will the minimum temperature be 50-51° on Apr 21, 2026last 27% · 5d
- Will the maximum temperature be <63° on Apr 21, 2026last 38% · 5d
- Will the minimum temperature be 43-44° on Apr 22, 2026last 43% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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