Will Elida become a Category 2 hurricane
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$18K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 2, 2026
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Fausto become a Category 2 hurricane
Will Fausto become a Category 2 hurricane?: Category 2 or above
KXHURCAT-26FAUSTO-T2
Analysis
The 89% probability indicates traders believe Elida will reach at least Category 1 intensity, while the 39% for Category 2 or above suggests meaningful uncertainty about further intensification. The spread between these probabilities reflects disagreement over whether environmental conditions—particularly sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and atmospheric moisture—will support the additional energy needed for Category 2 status. Key factors include current track forecasts from the National Hurricane Center, observed water temperatures along Elida's projected path, and wind shear patterns in the coming 48–72 hours. Resolution will depend on meteorological measurements as the storm develops, with intensity classifications determined by official NHC sustained wind speed assessments.
- ›Sea surface temperature along the forecast track: warmer waters (≥79°F) typically favor intensification to Category 2 or higher
- ›Upper-level wind shear magnitude: strong shear (>20 knots) inhibits further organization; weak shear enables it
- ›Current observed central pressure and wind speed: lower pressure and stronger observed winds at analysis time reduce intensification distance needed
- ›NHC official forecast track: landfall timing and coastal proximity affect available warm-water interaction time
- ›Atmospheric moisture and convective structure: organization of deep convection around the core signals intensification potential
What moved the line
- Jul 21Category 2 or above↓27pp80→53¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Category 2 or above↓25pp34→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Category 2 or above↓19pp53→34¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in climate
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.