Will the minimum temperature be 50-51° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader sits at 27% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
69° to 70°
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
71° to 72°
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 15, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the minimum temperature
Will the minimum temperature be 65-66° on Jul 17, 2026?: 65° to 66°
KXLOWTOKC-26JUL17-B65.5
Will the minimum temperature be >72° on Jul 17, 2026?: 73° or above
KXLOWTOKC-26JUL17-T72
Will the minimum temperature be <65° on Jul 17, 2026?: 64° or below
KXLOWTOKC-26JUL17-T65
Will the minimum temperature be 71-72° on Jul 17, 2026?: 71° to 72°
KXLOWTOKC-26JUL17-B71.5
Will the minimum temperature be 69-70° on Jul 17, 2026?: 69° to 70°
KXLOWTOKC-26JUL17-B69.5
Will the minimum temperature be 67-68° on Jul 17, 2026?: 67° to 68°
KXLOWTOKC-26JUL17-B67.5
Analysis
This contract asks whether the minimum temperature on May 15, 2026 will fall between 50 and 51 degrees Fahrenheit. At 27% probability, traders view this outcome as unlikely but plausible. The current market structure shows most traders expect May 15 to be warmer—the leading outcome (68-69°) reflects seasonal expectations for mid-May conditions in most US locations. The 50-51° range would require significant deviation from typical spring temperatures. What would move this probability up or down depends primarily on seasonal weather pattern forecasts and any shifts in the underlying climate model data. Resolution occurs on May 15, 2026, when the actual minimum temperature is recorded and the winning contract pays out while others expire worthless.
- ›The contract resolves May 15, 2026—this date is set and unchangeable, creating a hard deadline for weather data
- ›Market prices across the 6 temperature bins suggest median expectations around 68-71°, placing 50-51° in the lower tail of the distribution
- ›A 50-51° minimum in mid-May would require either an unusual cold snap or measurement at a location with cooler baseline conditions
- ›Current 27% probability is higher than the 17¢ price on the >71° outcome, indicating asymmetric risk perception across temperature ranges
- ›Trading volume concentrates on warmer outcomes (>70°), suggesting fewer active traders betting on the 50-51° scenario
Recently closed in climate
- Will the minimum temperature be 52-53° on Apr 22, 2026last 37% · 5d
- Will the maximum temperature be >65° on Apr 21, 2026last 31% · 5d
- Will the minimum temperature be >71° on Apr 21, 2026last 35% · 5d
- Will the maximum temperature be <63° on Apr 21, 2026last 38% · 5d
- Will the minimum temperature be 43-44° on Apr 22, 2026last 43% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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