Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 1 year become law before Jan 1, 2028

30-day trend

Analysis

This market estimates a 45% chance that Congress will pass a FISA Section 702 reauthorization extending surveillance authority for at least one year before the end of 2027. Section 702 permits warrantless surveillance of foreign intelligence targets and has been contested in Congress, with past renewals requiring contentious negotiations between civil liberties advocates and national security officials. The market reflects uncertainty about whether lawmakers will reach consensus on extension terms before the deadline. The strongest near-term signals come from other related contracts showing 56-61% probability of any reauthorization passing by early May 2026, suggesting active legislative motion. The wide gap between the 90-day extension (6¢) and 1-year extension (45¢) probabilities indicates traders believe Congress faces significant pressure to act but may compromise on shorter timelines if full-year extensions prove politically difficult.

• ›High probability (56-61%) of reauthorization activity occurring by early May 2026 suggests imminent legislative action
• ›Sharp drop-off in probability for shorter extensions (6% for 90 days) versus 1-year extensions (45%) indicates disagreement among traders about likely negotiated terms
• ›16-percentage-point gap between Polymarket (60%) and Kalshi (44%) suggests venues or trader pools weight similar information differently
• ›Section 702 reauthorization has historically involved protracted negotiations; current market reflects past patterns where civil liberties and surveillance concerns delay consensus
• ›Deadline of Jan 1, 2028 provides approximately 20 months for legislative activity from today, compressing options for multiple renewal attempts

What moved the line

• Jun 22At least 30 days↓8pp64→56¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 19At least 30 days↑3pp60→63¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 21At least 30 days↑3pp61→64¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds