Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 1 year become law before Jan 1, 2028
Leader sits at 79% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 63%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 30 days
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
63¢
At least 1 year
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least
Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 30 days become law before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 30 days
KXFISALENGTH-26MAY-FISA30D
Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 5 years become law before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 5 years
KXFISALENGTH-26MAY-FISA5Y
Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 2 years become law before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 2 years
KXFISALENGTH-26MAY-FISA2Y
Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 1 year become law before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 1 year
KXFISALENGTH-26MAY-FISA1Y
Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 90 days become law before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 90 days
KXFISALENGTH-26MAY-FISA90D
Analysis
This market estimates a 45% chance that Congress will pass a FISA Section 702 reauthorization extending surveillance authority for at least one year before the end of 2027. Section 702 permits warrantless surveillance of foreign intelligence targets and has been contested in Congress, with past renewals requiring contentious negotiations between civil liberties advocates and national security officials. The market reflects uncertainty about whether lawmakers will reach consensus on extension terms before the deadline. The strongest near-term signals come from other related contracts showing 56-61% probability of any reauthorization passing by early May 2026, suggesting active legislative motion. The wide gap between the 90-day extension (6¢) and 1-year extension (45¢) probabilities indicates traders believe Congress faces significant pressure to act but may compromise on shorter timelines if full-year extensions prove politically difficult.
- ›High probability (56-61%) of reauthorization activity occurring by early May 2026 suggests imminent legislative action
- ›Sharp drop-off in probability for shorter extensions (6% for 90 days) versus 1-year extensions (45%) indicates disagreement among traders about likely negotiated terms
- ›16-percentage-point gap between Polymarket (60%) and Kalshi (44%) suggests venues or trader pools weight similar information differently
- ›Section 702 reauthorization has historically involved protracted negotiations; current market reflects past patterns where civil liberties and surveillance concerns delay consensus
- ›Deadline of Jan 1, 2028 provides approximately 20 months for legislative activity from today, compressing options for multiple renewal attempts
What moved the line
- May 7At least 2 years↓28pp64→36¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least 5 years↓17pp30→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 2At least 30 days↑10pp68→78¢ · Kalshi
- May 2At least 1 year↑8pp55→63¢ · Kalshi
- May 2At least 5 years↑6pp25→31¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in legislation
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- FC Baník Ostrava vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň - More Markets: FC Viktoria Plzeň (-1.5)last 44% · 2d
- FC Baník Ostrava vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň - More Markets: FC Baník Ostrava (-1.5)last 50% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In legislation
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.