Will The Left win the next election to the German Bundestag
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$16
3 contracts
Closes
Mar 25, 2030
1325 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag
Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag?: AfD
KXGERELECTION-29MAR25-AFD
Cluster 2
Will SPD win the next election to the German Bundestag
Will SPD win the next election to the German Bundestag?: SPD
KXGERELECTION-29MAR25-SPD
Cluster 3
Will CDU/CSU win the next election to the German Bundestag
Will CDU/CSU win the next election to the German Bundestag?: CDU/CSU
KXGERELECTION-29MAR25-UNI
Analysis
This 19% probability reflects market expectations that The Left party will win the most seats in the next German Bundestag election. The Left's chances depend primarily on whether it can maintain or grow its current support base, as recent polling shows the party competing with the SPD for third-place positioning behind the CDU/CSU and AfD. Economic conditions, immigration policy debates, and coalition dynamics significantly influence which parties gain ground. The probability will become clearer as the election date approaches and polling data accumulates, though the outcome remains highly uncertain given the fragmented German political landscape where multiple parties compete for votes and governing coalitions require negotiation among several partners.
- ›Recent Bundestag polling data shows The Left consistently polling between 4-6% of the vote share, below the SPD (around 15%) and far behind CDU/CSU (around 30%) and AfD (around 20%)
- ›Electoral rules and coalition mathematics in Germany mean winning the most seats differs from winning the most votes; The Left would need to overcome larger parties in a multi-party system
- ›The Left's electoral performance has been volatile in recent cycles, with the party facing internal organizational challenges and competition from the Greens for left-leaning voters
- ›Upcoming campaign messaging and debate performance could shift voter preferences, particularly on cost-of-living issues where The Left maintains distinct positions
- ›Historical precedent shows no German chancellor has come from The Left party, suggesting structural barriers to the party forming a winning coalition even if it gains seats
What moved the line
- Aug 2AfD↑3pp50→53¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2SPD↓3pp9→6¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3CDU/CSU↑3pp31→34¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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