Will Aldrich Potgieter win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 14, 2028
484 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Akshay Bhatia win a golf major championship in 2027
Will Akshay Bhatia win a golf major championship in 2027?: Akshay Bhatia
KXGOLFMAJOR-27-ABHA
Cluster 2
Will Blades Brown win a golf major championship in 2027
Will Blades Brown win a golf major championship in 2027?: Blades Brown
KXGOLFMAJOR-27-BBRO
Cluster 3
Will Bryson DeChambeau win a golf major championship in 2027
Will Bryson DeChambeau win a golf major championship in 2027?: Bryson DeChambeau
KXGOLFMAJOR-27-BDEC
Cluster 4
Will Brooks Koepka win a golf major championship in 2027
Will Brooks Koepka win a golf major championship in 2027?: Brooks Koepka
KXGOLFMAJOR-27-BKOE
Cluster 5
Will Cameron Young win a golf major championship in 2027
Will Cameron Young win a golf major championship in 2027?: Cameron Young
KXGOLFMAJOR-27-CAME
Analysis
This market assesses whether Aldrich Potgieter will capture a major golf championship (The Masters, U.S. Open, Open Championship, or PGA Championship) between late June 2026 and the end of 2029. The 61% probability reflects optimism about Potgieter's competitive trajectory relative to the field of emerging professional golfers. This level is driven by assessments of his recent performance metrics, course suitability across different major venues, and historical win rates for players at his career stage. The probability would shift based on his tournament results over the next 3.5 years, particularly strong finishes at major events, changes in playing consistency, or injuries affecting his availability. Major championship tournaments occur quarterly, with The Masters in April and the U.S. Open in June serving as early data points within the resolution window. Potgieter's performance in 2027 tour events will be critical in validating whether current market pricing reflects realistic odds.
- ›Potgieter's finish positions and scoring averages in PGA Tour events during 2026-2029 compared to baseline expectations for emerging professionals
- ›Number and timing of top-10 finishes in major championships during the resolution period, as indicators of competitive readiness
- ›Eligibility and entry status for each major championship, including tour card status and qualifying tournament results
- ›Injury history and playing schedule consistency over the 3.5-year window, which affects participation in major events
- ›Comparison of Potgieter's win probability against the actual historical success rate for similarly-ranked golfers attempting majors over equivalent timeframes
Recently closed in general
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 4d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 4d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25last 84% · 6d
- Will PL win the 2026 Brazilian Chamber of Deputies electionslast 48% · 6d
- Will PSD hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial electionslast 23% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.