Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$21
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
941 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term
Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term?: Clarence Thomas
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-CT
Cluster 2
Will Amy Coney Barrett resign during Trump's term
Will Amy Coney Barrett resign during Trump's term?: Amy Coney Barrett
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-ACB
Cluster 3
Will Brett Kavanaugh resign during Trump's term
Will Brett Kavanaugh resign during Trump's term?: Brett Kavanaugh
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-BK
Cluster 4
Will Neil Gorsuch resign during Trump's term
Will Neil Gorsuch resign during Trump's term?: Neil Gorsuch
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-NG
Cluster 5
Will Elena Kagan resign during Trump's term
Will Elena Kagan resign during Trump's term?: Elena Kagan
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-EK
Cluster 6
Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term
Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term?: John Roberts
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-JR
Cluster 7
Will Ketanji Brown Jackson resign during Trump's term
Will Ketanji Brown Jackson resign during Trump's term?: Ketanji Brown Jackson
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-KBJ
Cluster 8
Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term
Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?: Samuel Alito
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-SA
Cluster 9
Will Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term
Will Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term?: Sonia Sotomayor
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-SS
Analysis
This probability indicates a roughly one-in-three chance that Chief Justice John Roberts will resign from the Supreme Court during Donald Trump's current presidency, which runs through January 2029. The 32% level reflects uncertainty about whether health concerns, institutional pressures, or other personal factors might prompt his departure. The main drivers are Roberts' age (currently 69) and health trajectory, along with broader political dynamics that could influence his decision calculus. A key catalyst would be any public announcement regarding his health status or retirement plans, which would immediately resolve much of the current uncertainty. The contract data shown primarily tracks Trump-related events rather than Roberts-specific developments, suggesting limited direct market activity specifically on his resignation decision.
- ›Roberts' current age and publicly disclosed health status would be direct indicators of resignation likelihood
- ›Any announcement from the Supreme Court or Roberts' chambers regarding retirement plans would immediately clarify the question
- ›Historical Supreme Court retirement patterns show few justices serve past their mid-80s, making timeline and health trajectory material factors
- ›Trump administration policies affecting the Court's jurisdiction or legitimacy could influence Roberts' calculations about staying versus leaving
- ›Media reporting on Roberts' behind-the-scenes views on Court dynamics or institutional concerns would provide evidence of his decision-making
What moved the line
- Jun 23Amy Coney Barrett↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Brett Kavanaugh↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Neil Gorsuch↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
- Will Trump visit Pakistan by...last 4% · 5d
- Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...last 3% · 5d
- Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026last 96% · 5d
- Trump out as President before 2027last 11% · 5d
- Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027last 66% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in trump.
In trump
Related reading
Trump Pivots on Hormuz Blockade — Market Prices 63% Chance of Lift by June 30
The 'Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30' contract surged 32¢ to 63¢ in a single session, making it the single biggest mover across all Trump-linked markets. This repricing is the direct political consequence of the Iran diplomatic surge — traders now see a high likelihood that the administration will claim a diplomatic win by lifting the blockade in conjunction with a nuclear deal framework.
Project Freedom Surge Signals Imminent Executive Action
The market saw a massive repricing of a contract related to a Trump executive action ('Project Freedom'), jumping from 13¢ to 100¢. This near-certainty event signals a high-impact policy announcement expected by June 30. The sudden move indicates strong insider or event-driven buying.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.