Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
28%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
895 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term
Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term?: Clarence Thomas
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-CT
Cluster 2
Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term
Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?: Samuel Alito
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-SA
Cluster 3
Will Amy Coney Barrett resign during Trump's term
Will Amy Coney Barrett resign during Trump's term?: Amy Coney Barrett
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-ACB
Cluster 4
Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term
Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term?: John Roberts
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-JR
Cluster 5
Will Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term
Will Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term?: Sonia Sotomayor
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-SS
Analysis
This probability indicates a roughly one-in-three chance that Chief Justice John Roberts will resign from the Supreme Court during Donald Trump's current presidency, which runs through January 2029. The 32% level reflects uncertainty about whether health concerns, institutional pressures, or other personal factors might prompt his departure. The main drivers are Roberts' age (currently 69) and health trajectory, along with broader political dynamics that could influence his decision calculus. A key catalyst would be any public announcement regarding his health status or retirement plans, which would immediately resolve much of the current uncertainty. The contract data shown primarily tracks Trump-related events rather than Roberts-specific developments, suggesting limited direct market activity specifically on his resignation decision.
- ›Roberts' current age and publicly disclosed health status would be direct indicators of resignation likelihood
- ›Any announcement from the Supreme Court or Roberts' chambers regarding retirement plans would immediately clarify the question
- ›Historical Supreme Court retirement patterns show few justices serve past their mid-80s, making timeline and health trajectory material factors
- ›Trump administration policies affecting the Court's jurisdiction or legitimacy could influence Roberts' calculations about staying versus leaving
- ›Media reporting on Roberts' behind-the-scenes views on Court dynamics or institutional concerns would provide evidence of his decision-making
What moved the line
- Aug 7Samuel Alito↓12pp68→56¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Samuel Alito↑5pp67→72¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Samuel Alito↓4pp72→68¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Samuel Alito↑3pp56→59¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Amy Coney Barrett↓3pp9→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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