Will British Columbia Lions win the CFL Grey Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4
6 contracts
Closes
Nov 30, 2026
71 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Montreal Alouettes win the CFL Grey Cup
Will Montreal Alouettes win the CFL Grey Cup?: Montreal Alouettes
KXGREYCUP-26-MTL
Cluster 2
Will British Columbia Lions win the CFL Grey Cup
Will British Columbia Lions win the CFL Grey Cup?: British Columbia Lions
KXGREYCUP-26-BC
Cluster 3
Will Calgary Stampeders win the CFL Grey Cup
Will Calgary Stampeders win the CFL Grey Cup?: Calgary Stampeders
KXGREYCUP-26-CGY
Cluster 4
Will Edmonton Elks win the CFL Grey Cup
Will Edmonton Elks win the CFL Grey Cup?: Edmonton Elks
KXGREYCUP-26-EDM
Cluster 5
Will Saskatchewan Roughriders win the CFL Grey Cup
Will Saskatchewan Roughriders win the CFL Grey Cup?: Saskatchewan Roughriders
KXGREYCUP-26-SSK
Cluster 6
Will Winnipeg Blue Bombers win the CFL Grey Cup
Will Winnipeg Blue Bombers win the CFL Grey Cup?: Winnipeg Blue Bombers
KXGREYCUP-26-WPG
Analysis
The British Columbia Lions have an 8% probability of winning the 2026 CFL Grey Cup, based on aggregated odds from prediction markets. This represents roughly a 1-in-12 chance the Lions capture Canadian football's championship. The Lions' current odds reflect their competitive position relative to stronger teams like the Montreal Alouettes (11% probability), who appear favored. Key factors influencing this probability include the Lions' recent performance record, roster strength compared to other CFL teams, and their health status heading into the season. The main catalyst for resolving uncertainty around these odds will be the Grey Cup championship game itself, scheduled for late November 2026, though regular-season performance from June through October will incrementally adjust market expectations based on actual game results and standings.
- ›British Columbia Lions' win-loss record and playoff positioning through the 2026 regular season (June-October) directly affects their championship odds
- ›Injury status of key offensive and defensive players, particularly quarterbacks and defensive leaders, compared to competitors
- ›Head-to-head performance against other top contenders like Montreal Alouettes and other strong teams during the regular season
- ›Overall CFL roster depth and free-agency acquisitions made by the Lions versus other franchises entering the season
- ›Recent historical playoff success rate and Grey Cup appearances by the Lions organization versus current frontrunners
What moved the line
- Sep 17Saskatchewan Roughriders↑5pp12→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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