Will Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East-Stoney Creek provincial by-election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+1pp
39h ago
24h volume
$10K
3 contracts
Top contract
40¢
$5K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Monique Taylor win the 2026 Hamilton East-Stoney Creek provincial by-election
Cluster 2
Will Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East-Stoney Creek provincial by-election
Cluster 3
Will Heino Doessing win the 2026 Hamilton East-Stoney Creek provincial by-election
Analysis
This represents a 32% estimated chance that Jeff Beattie wins the Hamilton East-Stoney Creek provincial by-election in 2026. The relatively low probability reflects that other candidates—particularly Monique Taylor—currently command higher odds in prediction markets. Movement in this contract would likely depend on campaign dynamics, polling data if released, endorsements, and the candidate field's final composition. The by-election itself serves as the decisive catalyst: once voting concludes and results are official, this contract resolves to either 100 cents or 0 cents.
- ›Monique Taylor is trading at 62 cents, indicating markets view her as the front-runner for this seat
- ›Market trading volume is very low (18-26 dollars per contract in 24h), suggesting limited confidence in pricing accuracy or minimal information flow
- ›No public polling or recent campaign news about the by-election race has been identified, leaving prices potentially volatile if information emerges
- ›Hamilton East-Stoney Creek's historical voting patterns and incumbent party performance would structurally favor or disadvantage candidates
- ›The final candidate slate has not been determined; changes to who runs would materially affect Beattie's winning probability
What moved the line
- Sep 3Monique Taylor↓34pp61→27¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Jeff Beattie↑26pp22→48¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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