Will Noor Tarun win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$18K
3 contracts
Top contract
88¢
$10K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election
Cluster 2
Will Noor Tarun win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election
Will Noor Tarun win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?: Noor Tarun
KXSCARBOROSWBY-26SEP03-NTAR
Cluster 3
Will Ahsanul Hafiz win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated chance that Noor Tarun will win the Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election in Ontario in 2026. The 32% estimate suggests Tarun is considered a competitive but not favored candidate in this race. The main factors driving this probability are the strength of the incumbent party's organizational capacity, local voter demographics and turnout patterns, and the relative name recognition and campaign resources of competing candidates. The by-election result itself will be the primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty, though pre-election polling and campaign spending reports in the weeks leading up to voting day could shift market expectations. Kalshi contracts show significant divergence in implied probabilities across candidates, with another candidate currently trading at 70 cents, indicating substantial uncertainty about the final outcome.
- ›Fatima Shaban currently trades at 70¢ while Noor Tarun trades at 4¢, suggesting market participants view Shaban as the stronger candidate despite both competing in the same race
- ›Ahsanul Hafiz's 21¢ price indicates a three-way competitive field where no single candidate commands majority expectations
- ›The 0 trading volume across all three contracts in the past 24 hours suggests limited recent market activity and potential illiquidity in pricing
- ›Tarun's 32% aggregated probability exceeds the individual contract price of 4¢, indicating possible data aggregation or multi-contract weighting effects
- ›The identity and party affiliation of candidates relative to local riding demographics and provincial political trends will directly determine vote share and election outcome
What moved the line
- Sep 3Fatima Shaban↑33pp53→86¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Ahsanul Hafiz↓14pp18→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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