Will Joseph Arminio be the Republican nominee for Delaware at-large congressional district
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$246
4 contracts
Closes
Sep 15, 2027
376 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Earl Cooper be the Republican nominee for Delaware's at-large congressional district
Cluster 2
Will Joseph Arminio be the Republican nominee for Delaware at-large congressional district
Cluster 3
Will John J. Whalen III be the Republican nominee for Delaware at-large congressional district
Cluster 4
Will Gavin Solomon be the Republican nominee for Delaware's at-large congressional district
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Joseph Arminio becomes the Republican Party's nominee for Delaware's at-large congressional seat in the 2026 election cycle. At 23%, Arminio ranks as a secondary contender behind frontrunner Earl Cooper, who commands 73% implied probability. The gap between Arminio and Cooper suggests market participants view Cooper as substantially more likely to secure the nomination based on current positioning or visibility. The main factors shaping this level include the strength of each candidate's campaign infrastructure, fundraising performance, endorsement patterns among party leadership, and any strategic decisions about whether multiple strong candidates remain in the race through the primary process. The nomination will be resolved once Delaware Republicans formally select their nominee, likely through a primary election or party convention depending on state procedures.
- ›Earl Cooper's commanding 73% market share suggests he is perceived as the clear frontrunner, leaving limited probability for alternative candidates including Arminio
- ›Joseph Arminio at 23% implies he is viewed as a viable but substantially weaker second option compared to Cooper among Republican primary voters or delegates
- ›The four-candidate field shows 73% + 7% + 7% + 5% = 92%, indicating 8% residual probability for other unnamed candidates or measurement uncertainty
- ›Relative trading volume ($371 in 24h volume for Cooper vs. $0 for Arminio) suggests significantly more market confidence and interest in Cooper as the likely nominee
- ›Primary election timing and campaign developments (endorsements, fundraising reports, polling data) represent key catalysts that could shift probabilities among these candidates before the formal nomination occurs
What moved the line
- Aug 31Earl Cooper↑6pp50→56¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1John J. Whalen III↑6pp32→38¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1Earl Cooper↓3pp56→53¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 31John J. Whalen III↓3pp35→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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