Will more than 650,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 750,000 units
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
Above 700,000 units
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$459
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
102 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will more than
Will more than 900,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026?: Above 900,000 units
KXHONEYDEUCE-01JAN27-A900000
Will more than 850,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026?: Above 850,000 units
KXHONEYDEUCE-01JAN27-A850000
Will more than 750,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026?: Above 750,000 units
KXHONEYDEUCE-01JAN27-A750000
Will more than 800,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026?: Above 800,000 units
KXHONEYDEUCE-01JAN27-A800000
Will more than 700,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026?: Above 700,000 units
KXHONEYDEUCE-01JAN27-A700000
Will more than 650,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026?: Above 650,000 units
KXHONEYDEUCE-01JAN27-A650000
Analysis
The market is pricing a 95% probability that Honey Deuces—a beverage sold at the US Open tennis tournament—will exceed 650,000 units sold in 2026. This reflects strong confidence in baseline demand, likely driven by the drink's established presence at the tournament and typical attendance levels. The probability drops significantly at higher thresholds: 77% for 750,000 units and 29% for 900,000 units, suggesting traders see limited upside beyond normal sales patterns. Resolution depends on the actual sales figures reported after the tournament concludes in September 2026, making final ticket sales, tournament weather, and vendor performance key determinants of outcome.
- ›US Open 2026 total attendance figures relative to historical averages will directly affect baseline concession sales volumes
- ›Honey Deuce pricing and per-capita purchasing rates compared to 2024-2025 tournament data will determine whether sales reach stated thresholds
- ›Tournament duration and scheduling (weather delays, extended matches) could increase or decrease total venue hours and sales opportunities
- ›Competitive beverage options and vendor inventory allocation may shift consumer preferences toward or away from Honey Deuces
- ›Official sales reporting from USTA or venue operators must be disclosed to definitively resolve the contract by the stated threshold amounts
What moved the line
- Sep 17Above 650,000 units↓69pp99→30¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Above 800,000 units↑23pp68→91¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 700,000 units↑22pp72→94¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 900,000 units↓19pp25→6¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 800,000 units↓19pp80→61¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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