Syria vs Iran Winner
Leader sits at 78% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
USA
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Mexico
Spread
59pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jul 21, 2026
14 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
USA vs Mexico Winner
Analysis
This 3% probability represents the estimated chance that Syria will militarily defeat Iran in a direct conflict. The low odds reflect Iran's significant military advantages, including a larger defense budget, advanced weapons systems, and established regional military infrastructure. The probability could shift substantially based on geopolitical realignments, international military support to either party, or unexpected escalations of existing tensions. Key catalysts would include any direct military engagement, shifts in international alliances affecting military capability, or significant changes in regional stability that alter the strategic balance between the two nations.
- ›Iran's military spending and armed forces are substantially larger than Syria's, with more advanced naval, air defense, and ballistic missile capabilities
- ›Syria's military has been significantly degraded by its civil war since 2011, affecting operational readiness and equipment availability
- ›Direct Syrian-Iranian military conflict would likely depend on regional geopolitical shifts or involvement of supporting powers rather than autonomous escalation
- ›International intervention or military support to either nation could materially change the projected outcome
- ›The current market price reflects very low probability, suggesting participants view such a conflict as unlikely under foreseeable circumstances
What moved the line
- Jul 5USA↑33pp14→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 6USA↑28pp47→75¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 5Mexico↑11pp4→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 6Mexico↑5pp15→20¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in iran
- Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?last 31% · 0d
- Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by...last 13% · 11d
- Will Marco Rubio visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026last 3% · 12d
- Will the full text of the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding be released in the world before Jun 17, 2026last 97% · 20d
- Iran coup attempt by June 30last 3% · 20d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (78% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
Iran Regime Fall at 36%, Nuclear Deal at 50%: Divergent Middle East Scenarios
Prediction markets are pricing simultaneous 36% regime-collapse and 50% nuclear-deal odds for Iran, suggesting traders see extreme volatility and binary outcomes rather than gradual policy shifts.
Iran Uranium Enrichment Deal Odds Surge 20 Points
The probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30 has jumped from 40¢ to 60¢, the largest single-day move in this contract. Trading volume is very high, suggesting a potential leak, official statement, or significant progress in talks.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.