80: Above 80
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$21K
2 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
162 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will Bitcoin be above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET” vs “Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Spirit Airlines”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Bitcoin be above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET
Will Bitcoin be above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET?: Above $200000
KXBTC2026200-27JAN01-200000
Cluster 2
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Spirit Airlines
Analysis
This represents a 7% probability that at least one of four diverse outcomes will occur before early July 2026: Strait of Hormuz transit activity exceeds 60 calls, Bitcoin reaches $100,000, Bitcoin reaches $200,000, or the U.S. federal government acquires a stake in Spirit Airlines. The low probability reflects that these are largely independent events with different timelines and drivers. The transit contracts dominate trading volume and depend on geopolitical stability in the Middle East, while cryptocurrency thresholds hinge on market sentiment and adoption. The Spirit Airlines contract carries minimal liquidity. The primary catalysts include IMF PortWatch data releases (for maritime traffic), Bitcoin price discovery through Q2 2026, and any aviation industry restructuring announcements. Most contracts resolve by early July, making this a near-term gauge of market expectations across unrelated sectors.
- ›Strait of Hormuz transit volumes tracked by IMF PortWatch remain above 60 calls on the 7-day average through May 31, 2026, or fail to reach that threshold
- ›Bitcoin's spot price reaches or exceeds $100,000 USD before July 1, 2026, reflecting sustained market valuation increases
- ›U.S. federal government initiates or announces an equity stake acquisition in Spirit Airlines before the resolution date
- ›Current Bitcoin price level versus contract strike prices, with contract pricing at 6¢ suggesting less than 10% implied probability for $100k target
- ›Trading volume concentration on Hormuz transit contract ($367k 24h) versus minimal volume on Spirit Airlines ($28) indicates market conviction differences across outcomes
Recently closed in general
- Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 12000000 as of June 30, 2026last 73% · 1d
- Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 7 between Jun 15, 2026 and Jun 21, 2026last 95% · 3d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 6d
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 6d
- Will Janet Mills endorse Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race before May 15, 2026last 3% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.