80: Above 80
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$844K
16 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
242 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “bitcoin price on may” vs “Will Bitcoin be above $”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
bitcoin price on may
Bitcoin price on May 3, 2026?: $78,250 or above
KXBTCD-26MAY0317-T78249.99
Bitcoin price on May 3, 2026?: $78,500 or above
KXBTCD-26MAY0317-T78499.99
Bitcoin price on May 3, 2026?: $78,750 or above
KXBTCD-26MAY0317-T78749.99
Bitcoin price on May 3, 2026?: $78,000 or above
KXBTCD-26MAY0317-T77999.99
Bitcoin price on May 3, 2026?: $79,000 or above
KXBTCD-26MAY0317-T78999.99
Bitcoin price on May 3, 2026?: $77,750 or above
KXBTCD-26MAY0317-T77749.99
Bitcoin price on May 3, 2026?: $79,250 or above
KXBTCD-26MAY0317-T79249.99
Bitcoin price on May 8, 2026?: $81,000 or above
KXBTCD-26MAY0817-T80999.99
Cluster 2
Will Bitcoin be above $
Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by July 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?: Before July 2026
KXBTCMAX100-26-JUNE
Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by June 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?: Before June 2026
KXBTCMAX100-26-MAY
Will Bitcoin be above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET?: Above $200000
KXBTC2026200-27JAN01-200000
Cluster 3
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 15, 2026?: Before May 15, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260515
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before June 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
Cluster 4
will average gas prices be above $4.4
Cluster 5
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Spirit Airlines
What moved the line
- May 1Above 4.460↑43pp45→88¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Above 4.460↑40pp5→45¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Spirit Airlines↓22pp37→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Above 4.460↓20pp88→68¢ · Kalshi
- May 3$78,250 or above↓17pp68→51¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.