Houston Dash vs. North Carolina Courage
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
5 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
1233 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will the margin of victory” vs “Will Democrat”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P11
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P9
Cluster 2
Will Democrat
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that the Houston Dash will win their upcoming match against the North Carolina Courage. The 40% figure reflects moderate uncertainty about the outcome, suggesting neither team is heavily favored. The current assessment likely considers factors such as recent team form, head-to-head performance history, home-field advantage if applicable, and roster availability. Key variables that could shift this probability include recent injury reports, lineup announcements, or changes in team momentum leading up to kickoff. The match result will definitively resolve this question on its scheduled date, making actual match performance the primary catalyst that will determine the outcome.
- ›Houston Dash's recent win-loss record and goal differential compared to North Carolina Courage over the current season
- ›Home-field advantage status and historical performance of both teams in their respective venues
- ›Injury status and availability of key players for both squads ahead of the scheduled match
- ›Head-to-head record between these two teams in recent matchups
- ›Strength of schedule context and playoff positioning implications if this match affects standings
What moved the line
- Jun 19Democrats, 9+ pts↓7pp42→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Democrats, 11+ pts↓6pp36→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Yes↓5pp45→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Yes↑3pp37→40¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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