Houston Dash vs. North Carolina Courage
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 41%, Polymarket at 39%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
41%
8 contracts
Polymarket
39%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$27K
20 contracts
Top contract
84¢
$15K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 41¢ · Polymarket 39¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (39¢, 12 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (41¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash” vs “Will the margin of victory”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x7cba40…e09c
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: Utah Royals FC (-2.5)
0x480bda…7034
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash: Draw (Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash)
0x04af29…de3e
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: Houston Dash (-1.5)
0x048577…0f9a
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash: Utah Royals FC
0x36ed0b…5624
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: Houston Dash (-2.5)
0xc75506…5e09
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: Utah Royals FC (-1.5)
0x920c44…2e0b
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x64e235…d0d8
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xb3384b…c235
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash: Houston Dash
0x2b093a…f9df
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x5ccc92…b5d5
Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x2113bb…91c8
Cluster 2
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P11
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P9
Cluster 3
North Carolina vs Virginia Winner
Cluster 4
Will Democrat
Cluster 5
Will North Carolina win the College Baseball World Series
Will North Carolina win the College Baseball World Series?: North Carolina
KXNCAABASEBALL-26-UNC
What moved the line
- May 2Democrats, 9+ pts↑8pp46→54¢ · Kalshi
- May 3North Carolina↑5pp55→60¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Democrats, 11+ pts↑5pp35→40¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Democrats, 11+ pts↑4pp40→44¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Houston Dash (-2.5)↑4pp34→38¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.