Houston Dash vs. North Carolina Courage - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
41%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
5 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
1186 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will the margin of victory” vs “Will Democrat”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P11
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P9
Cluster 2
Will Democrat
Analysis
This 38% probability reflects market expectations for a specific outcome related to North Carolina political contests. The contracts aggregated here primarily concern the 2026 U.S. Senate elections in North Carolina, where Democrats are currently trading at higher probabilities for achieving various margin thresholds. The current level suggests markets view Democrats as favored in this race but not overwhelmingly so. Key drivers include polling trends, voter registration data, and national political momentum heading into the election cycle. The single biggest catalyst will be the November 2026 midterm election results themselves, which will definitively resolve all linked contracts. Until then, quarterly polling releases and campaign developments will likely shift probabilities as new information emerges about candidate viability and voter sentiment.
- ›Democratic candidates are priced at 46% to win Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine simultaneously, suggesting North Carolina alone faces significant headwinds despite the 38% aggregate
- ›The 42-cent contract for a 9+ point Democratic margin vastly outprices the 18-cent Republican contract for a 1+ point margin, indicating market asymmetry in outcome expectations
- ›Contract volumes vary dramatically ($19,571 for baseball, $112 for multi-state Senate, near-zero for specific margin thresholds), suggesting limited market conviction in these North Carolina predictions
- ›The gap between 42¢ (9-point Democratic margin) and 35¢ (11-point Democratic margin) suggests incremental uncertainty around the magnitude of any Democratic victory
- ›Most contracts expire November 2026, making this a 17-month forecast with substantial time for political conditions and campaign dynamics to shift market assessments
What moved the line
- Aug 3Democratic party↓6pp76→70¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Yes↓5pp54→49¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Who will be Trump's next Attorney Generallast 97% · 0d
- Will the number of Cabinet nominees confirmed by the Senate be exactly 3 after Issuance and before the 2026 August recesslast 7% · 1d
- Will it be reported by U.S. Senate that the U.S. Senate adjourns from substantive floor business for its August 2026 recess before Aug 9, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will Ralph Norman announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026last 4% · 1d
- Will there be at least 3 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Jul 19, 2026last 46% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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