Houston Dash vs. Seattle Reign FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2028
705 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2
Analysis
This 16% probability reflects market expectations about an event related to Houston Dash versus Seattle Reign FC, with significant disagreement between venues (Kalshi at 26%, Polymarket at 5%). The large cross-venue gap suggests analysts are uncertain about how to interpret available information. The contracts trading show limited volume, indicating sparse liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that could exaggerate price differences. Resolution depends on specific match outcomes or performance metrics. Key drivers moving this probability would include team roster changes, injury reports, or historical head-to-head performance data. Without clear catalyst dates visible in current contract specifications, price discovery may remain volatile as new information emerges closer to any scheduled match date.
- ›21 percentage-point spread between venues suggests genuine disagreement rather than efficient pricing
- ›Combined 24-hour volume of only $13 across both venues indicates thin liquidity and potential for wide spreads
- ›Kalshi contract significantly outprices Polymarket contract (26¢ vs 5¢), creating arbitrage opportunity if one venue reflects better information
- ›Limited trading volume suggests few professional traders are actively managing positions in this outcome
- ›Match-specific variables like starting lineups, recent performance trends, and head-to-head history will likely move the probability once closer to resolution date
Recently closed in general
- Will a budget resolution passed the House before Aug 1, 2026last 90% · 4d
- Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 12000000 as of June 30, 2026last 73% · 6d
- Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 7 between Jun 15, 2026 and Jun 21, 2026last 95% · 8d
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 10d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 10d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (17% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.