Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 92.5 TWh
Leader sits at 96% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 87.5 TWh
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
Above 90.0 TWh
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$5K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above
Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 97.5 TWh?: Above 97.5 TWh
KXILNUCLEAR-27FEB28-T97.5
Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 95.0 TWh?: Above 95.0 TWh
KXILNUCLEAR-27FEB28-T95.0
Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 100.0 TWh?: Above 100.0 TWh
KXILNUCLEAR-27FEB28-T100.0
Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 92.5 TWh?: Above 92.5 TWh
KXILNUCLEAR-27FEB28-T92.5
Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 87.5 TWh?: Above 87.5 TWh
KXILNUCLEAR-27FEB28-T87.5
Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 90.0 TWh?: Above 90.0 TWh
KXILNUCLEAR-27FEB28-T90.0
Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 102.5 TWh?: Above 102.5 TWh
KXILNUCLEAR-27FEB28-T102.5
Analysis
This question asks whether Illinois will generate more than 92.5 terawatt-hours of net electricity from nuclear sources in 2026. At 79% probability, traders assess this outcome as likely but not certain. Illinois nuclear output depends primarily on reactor availability and capacity factors at its operating plants—mainly Exelon's Byron and Dresden stations, plus potential contributions from other facilities. The significant gap between the 79% price (above 92.5 TWh) and the 59% price (above 95.0 TWh) suggests market uncertainty about whether output will land in the high-80s or exceed 95 TWh. Since we are in mid-August 2026, actual generation data for most of the year is already known or nearly finalized, meaning the uncertainty likely centers on final Q4 production figures and any late-year maintenance or operational issues. The outcome will be determined by published utility generation statistics, typically released by sources like the Energy Information Administration or state regulators in early 2027.
- ›Illinois reactor fleet capacity factor and planned/unplanned maintenance schedules during 2026, particularly Byron and Dresden stations which represent majority of state nuclear output
- ›Actual monthly generation data released through December 2026 showing trajectory toward or away from 92.5 TWh threshold
- ›Operational status of any additional reactors or uprates that may have come online or modified output during the year
- ›Comparison of Illinois nuclear output against prior-year baselines (2024-2025 generation levels) to assess trend direction
- ›EIA or regulatory agency publication of final 2026 annual nuclear generation statistics, typically released in Q1 2027, which will be the definitive resolution source
What moved the line
- Aug 20Above 97.5 TWh↑14pp22→36¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above 95.0 TWh↑11pp61→72¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above 92.5 TWh↑10pp82→92¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above 97.5 TWh↓9pp36→27¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Above 95.0 TWh↑9pp72→81¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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