Inter Kashi FC vs. North East United FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 46%, Polymarket at 32% — a 14pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
12 contracts
Polymarket
32%
8 contracts
Cross-venue gap
14pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
20 contracts
Top contract
20¢
$1K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 46¢ · Polymarket 32¢ · 14pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (32¢, 8 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (46¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
9 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will the margin of victory” vs “Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Democrats, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 3 percentage points?: Democrats, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P3
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 5 percentage points?: Democrats, 5+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P5
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 7 percentage points?: Democrats, 7+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P7
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 13 percentage points?: Democrats, 13+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P13
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P3
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P11
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P9
Cluster 2
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: Incheon United FC
0x10cbc2…77dd
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Incheon United FC (-2.5)
0x4ce71d…a7ed
Cluster 3
United States vs. Paraguay
Cluster 4
Will a protest within the United States that draws a combined estimated attendance of at least 250,000 people across all locations be confirmed
Cluster 5
Will Manchester United men's soccer win at least 5 games in a row this year
Will Manchester United men's soccer win at least 5 games in a row this year?: 5+ wins in a row
KXWINSTREAKMANU-27-5
Cluster 6
CBA: Winner: Jilin Northeast Tigers
CBA: Winner: Jilin Northeast Tigers
0xc48bda…b354
Cluster 7
Will Berlin International Gaming win map 2 in the Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs. Berlin International Gaming match
Cluster 8
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Ōita Trinita
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Ōita Trinita (-1.5)
0x88fc7b…35d4
Cluster 9
Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x2c9b2c…f16e
What moved the line
- May 3Berlin International Gaming↓40pp44→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)↓17pp35→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Democrats, 9+ pts↑8pp46→54¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Democrats, 13+ pts↑7pp26→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Democrats, 7+ pts↑7pp52→59¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.