Inter Kashi FC vs. North East United FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 46%, Polymarket at 32% — a 14pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
12 contracts
Polymarket
32%
8 contracts
Cross-venue gap
14pp
wide divergence
24h move
+8pp
35h ago
24h volume
$2K
20 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
549 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 46¢ · Polymarket 32¢ · 14pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (32¢, 8 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (46¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
9 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will the margin of victory” vs “Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Democrats, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 3 percentage points?: Democrats, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P3
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 5 percentage points?: Democrats, 5+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P5
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 7 percentage points?: Democrats, 7+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P7
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 13 percentage points?: Democrats, 13+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P13
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P3
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P11
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P9
Cluster 2
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: Incheon United FC
0x10cbc2…77dd
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Incheon United FC (-2.5)
0x4ce71d…a7ed
Cluster 3
United States vs. Paraguay
Cluster 4
Will a protest within the United States that draws a combined estimated attendance of at least 250,000 people across all locations be confirmed
Cluster 5
Will Manchester United men's soccer win at least 5 games in a row this year
Will Manchester United men's soccer win at least 5 games in a row this year?: 5+ wins in a row
KXWINSTREAKMANU-27-5
Cluster 6
CBA: Winner: Jilin Northeast Tigers
CBA: Winner: Jilin Northeast Tigers
0xc48bda…b354
Cluster 7
Will Berlin International Gaming win map 2 in the Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs. Berlin International Gaming match
Cluster 8
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Ōita Trinita
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Ōita Trinita (-1.5)
0x88fc7b…35d4
Cluster 9
Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x2c9b2c…f16e
Analysis
This market reflects the aggregated probability that Inter Kashi FC will defeat North East United FC by a specific margin in an upcoming match. The 32% probability masks a significant pricing disagreement across venues: Kalshi prices the outcome at 11% while Polymarket values it at 76%, creating a 65-percentage-point spread. This divergence suggests traders on different platforms have reached different conclusions about team form, historical matchups, or specific betting rules differences. The probability will resolve when the match concludes, with the final outcome determined by the actual margin of victory. The extreme gap between platforms indicates either one market has identified an analytical edge, or the contracts are measuring subtly different conditions. Key drivers include recent performance records, head-to-head history, injury status, and home-field advantage considerations.
- ›Polymarket-Kalshi spread of 65 percentage points indicates material disagreement on contract specifications or team likelihood
- ›Kalshi contracts specify Republican margin thresholds (1+ and 3+ percentage points) with volume under $1,500 per contract in 24 hours
- ›Polymarket contract focuses on NYC FC vs D.C. United with 76-cent pricing and $271 volume, suggesting different sport or match entirely
- ›Cross-venue data suggests possible contract definition misalignment rather than unified market signal
- ›Low individual contract volumes ($271-$1,403 daily) indicate limited liquidity and potential for wide bid-ask spreads on both platforms
What moved the line
- May 3Berlin International Gaming↓40pp44→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)↓17pp35→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Democrats, 9+ pts↑8pp46→54¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Democrats, 13+ pts↑7pp26→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Democrats, 7+ pts↑7pp52→59¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.