Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$225
1 contracts
Closes
Oct 9, 2026
105 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Where will Neymar go next
Where will Neymar go next?: Inter Miami
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-MIA
Analysis
This 3% probability reflects the market's assessment that Neymar will transfer to Inter Miami CF rather than Orlando City SC as his next club. The estimate is based on limited trading activity on one contract, indicating low conviction or interest in this specific outcome. Neymar's transfer destination depends on multiple variables: his current club's willingness to sell, Inter Miami's financial capacity and interest, Orlando City's competitive bid, and Neymar's own preferences. The probability would shift significantly based on official statements from Neymar, his agent, or either MLS club regarding transfer intentions. Any completed transfer announcement would resolve this market, while negotiations or media reports could cause substantial repricing before a final decision emerges.
- ›Limited market depth with only one contract showing 3-cent pricing and zero 24-hour trading volume suggests low market confidence in this specific outcome
- ›Neymar's current contractual status and stated transfer preferences have not been publicly disclosed as of June 2026, creating fundamental uncertainty about whether he intends to move to MLS at all
- ›Inter Miami CF's salary cap constraints and recent roster construction may affect their capacity to sign Neymar compared to other potential destinations
- ›Orlando City SC's financial resources and recent spending patterns relative to Inter Miami would influence the likelihood of one club outbidding the other
- ›Any official statement from Neymar's agent or either club indicating genuine interest in signing him would create significant repricing in this market
What moved the line
- Jun 26Inter Miami↑5pp5→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.