Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 43% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 45%, Polymarket at 33% — a 12pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
16 contracts
Polymarket
33%
4 contracts
Cross-venue gap
12pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
20 contracts
Closes
May 2, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 45¢ · Polymarket 33¢ · 12pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (33¢, 4 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (45¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
13 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Miami Heretics win” vs “Will Zero Tenacity win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Miami Heretics win
Will Miami Heretics win the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match?: Miami Heretics
KXCODGAME-26MAY031630G2MMH-MH
Will Miami Heretics win map 3 in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match?: Miami Heretics
KXCODMAP-26MAY031630G2MMH-3-MH
Will Miami Heretics win map 1 in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match?: Miami Heretics
KXCODMAP-26MAY031630G2MMH-1-MH
Will Miami Heretics win map 2 in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match?: Miami Heretics
KXCODMAP-26MAY031630G2MMH-2-MH
Cluster 2
Will Zero Tenacity win
Will Zero Tenacity win the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy Dota 2 match?: Zero Tenacity
KXDOTA2GAME-26MAY031100Z10NGX-Z10
Will Zero Tenacity win map 2 in the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy match?: Zero Tenacity
KXDOTA2MAP-26MAY031100Z10NGX-2-Z10
Will Zero Tenacity win the REKONIX vs. Zero Tenacity Dota 2 match?: Zero Tenacity
KXDOTA2GAME-26MAY040500RNXZ10-Z10
Cluster 3
Will G2 Minnesota win
Cluster 4
Will Berlin International Gaming win
Will Berlin International Gaming win the Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs. Berlin International Gaming League of Legends match?: Berlin International Gaming
KXLOLGAME-26MAY051300USEBIG-BIG
Will Berlin International Gaming win map 2 in the Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs. Berlin International Gaming match?: Berlin International Gaming
KXLOLMAP-26MAY051300USEBIG-2-BIG
Cluster 5
Will over 4.5 maps be played in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics Call of Duty match
Cluster 6
Will over 3.5 maps be played in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics Call of Duty match
Cluster 7
Will Nigma Galaxy win the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy Dota 2 match
Will Nigma Galaxy win the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy Dota 2 match?: Nigma Galaxy
KXDOTA2GAME-26MAY031100Z10NGX-NGX
Cluster 8
Where will Neymar go next
Where will Neymar go next?: Inter Miami
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-MIA
Cluster 9
MLS Cup Winner 2026: Inter Miami CF
MLS Cup Winner 2026: Inter Miami CF
0x484d3e…4ba9
Cluster 10
Will Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition win the Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs. Berlin International Gaming League of Legends match
Cluster 11
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: East Bengal FC
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: East Bengal FC (-1.5)
0x1ef468…3cd4
Cluster 12
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0e25b5…6674
Cluster 13
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Yokohama FC
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Yokohama FC (-2.5)
0x63f37e…c527
What moved the line
- May 3Berlin International Gaming↓40pp44→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Over 3.5 maps↑33pp34→67¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Over 3.5 maps↑32pp2→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 3.5 maps↓31pp67→36¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Over 4.5 maps↑14pp2→16¢ · Kalshi
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.