Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Benny Gantz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030
Leader sits at 30% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Israel Katz
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
18¢
Avigdor Lieberman
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$3
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 28, 2030
1497 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that
Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Avigdor Lieberman is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?: Avigdor Lieberman
KXISRDEFMIN-30-ALIE
Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?: Naftali Bennett
KXISRDEFMIN-30-NBEN
Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Israel Katz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?: Israel Katz
KXISRDEFMIN-30-IKAT
Analysis
This market gauges whether Israel Katz will be the first Defense Minister in the government formed after the next Knesset election before late October 2030. Currently trading at 50%, Katz leads substantially over alternatives Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot (each at 3%). The probability reflects Katz's existing political position and track record in forming coalitions, though it remains uncertain whether he will retain or obtain this specific portfolio in a future government. Key drivers include coalition negotiations after the next election and the distribution of ministerial posts among parties. The resolution depends on which candidate actually takes the Defense portfolio first in the newly formed government, as verified by Times of Israel reporting. The main uncertainty catalyst will be the timing and results of the next Knesset election, which determines the political landscape and coalition possibilities.
- ›Israel Katz's current prominence in Israeli politics and recent coalition-building experience versus Gantz and Eisenkot's relative political standing
- ›Whether the next Knesset election produces a coalition that prioritizes Katz for the Defense Ministry or distributes it differently among parties
- ›The specific timeline of government formation after the election—whether it occurs before the October 2030 deadline
- ›Historical patterns of Defense Ministry allocation in Israeli coalition negotiations and which candidates have realistic pathways to the position
- ›Whether Gantz or Eisenkot maintain sufficient political viability and coalition relevance to compete for the position in the next government
What moved the line
- Sep 17Israel Katz↑21pp8→29¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Avigdor Lieberman↑17pp2→19¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Naftali Bennett↑7pp1→8¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Israel Katz↓6pp29→23¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Avigdor Lieberman↓5pp19→14¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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