Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first
Leader sits at 66% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
2
Spread
50pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 28, 2030
1506 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly
Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?: 1
KXISRKNESSETCOUNT-26AUG28-E1
Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 3 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?: 3
KXISRKNESSETCOUNT-26AUG28-E3
Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 2 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?: 2
KXISRKNESSETCOUNT-26AUG28-E2
Analysis
This market measures whether Israel will hold exactly one Knesset election between now and either the formation of a new government or October 27, 2030, whichever comes first. The 67% probability reflects expectations that the current political cycle will produce a single election leading to a stable coalition, rather than triggering multiple elections or reaching the deadline without forming a government. The probability is driven primarily by Israel's recent pattern of frequent snap elections (2019-2022) versus the desire for governmental stability, and the strength of current coalition-building capacity. The main catalyst would be whether the next Knesset election produces a coalition with sufficient seats to govern without collapse, versus scenarios where no bloc achieves majority support or coalition partners prove incompatible, forcing additional elections.
- ›Current Knesset composition and which parties control the next election's baseline coalition threshold (typically 61 of 120 seats)
- ›Historical frequency of government collapses in Israel: 2019-2022 saw four elections in three years, but 2023-2026 has seen relative stability with a single government lasting through 2026
- ›The 2030 deadline means outcomes depend on whether any government formed lasts approximately 4 years without dissolution
- ›Demographic and policy fractures within potential coalition blocs that could trigger early elections versus agreements to maintain parliamentary stability
- ›International and security developments that could force early political recalibration or dissolution of government coalitions
What moved the line
- Sep 181↓24pp67→43¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 191↓13pp43→30¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 192↑7pp18→25¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Left Party be the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag electionlast 13% · 1d
- Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%last 97% · 2d
- Will the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff be at least 6%last 97% · 2d
- Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 10 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026last 46% · 3d
- Who will win the 2026 Providence, RI mayoral electionlast 82% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Midterm 2026 Markets Surge with Over 300 Contracts and $4M+ Volume
The 2026 midterm cycle is heating up with high-volume markets on House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. The current probabilities suggest a competitive environment, with key swing states like Texas, Iowa, and Michigan drawing the most action.
Democrats heavily favored to flip the House; Texas Senate race a key upset risk
The House control market shows a 10¢ vs 89¢ split for Republicans vs Democrats, implying a 9-to-1 probability of a Democratic majority. Texas' Senate race is more competitive, with the Democratic candidate at 57¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.