Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 25
Leader sits at 94% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 84%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 3
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
84¢
At least 5
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$6
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least
Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 5?: At least 5
KXTRUMPDELETE-26MAY-A5
Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 3?: At least 3
KXTRUMPDELETE-26MAY-A3
Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 25?: At least 25
KXTRUMPDELETE-26MAY-A25
Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 20?: At least 20
KXTRUMPDELETE-26MAY-A20
Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 15?: At least 15
KXTRUMPDELETE-26MAY-A15
Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 10?: At least 10
KXTRUMPDELETE-26MAY-A10
Analysis
This contract estimates a 97% probability that Donald Trump will delete at least 25 Truth Social posts during May 2026. The high confidence reflects Trump's established posting pattern on the platform; related contracts show he posted 80–99 times in late April, suggesting consistent activity. The probability could shift based on whether Trump maintains his current deletion rate—a behavioral metric tied to content moderation preferences or strategic account management. Resolution depends on Truth Social's public deletion records becoming available after May concludes, typically within days of month-end. Key uncertainties include whether deletions correlate with specific events (posts attracting criticism or legal concerns) or represent routine maintenance, and whether platform access or policy changes would disrupt the baseline pattern.
- ›Trump posted 80–99 times in the week of April 26, 2026 (97¢ contract), establishing recent daily volume baseline
- ›Historical Truth Social deletion rate: analysts must establish what percentage of Trump's posts are typically removed post-publication
- ›Deletion behavior is discretionary and context-dependent; no public announcement typically precedes removal decisions
- ›May 31, 2026 is the hard resolution date; Truth Social must publish final deletion counts or third-party monitors must verify the tally
- ›Runner-up contract at 93% suggests modest disagreement on whether 25 is the precise threshold, indicating marginal uncertainty near the boundary
What moved the line
- May 6At least 10↓8pp65→57¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least 3↓7pp94→87¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least 5↓5pp87→82¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least 15↓4pp24→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least 10↓3pp57→54¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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