How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Jun 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$119
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Jun 2026
Analysis
The market is pricing an approximately 68% probability that Donald Trump visits Trump National Golf Club Bedminster exactly once during June 2026. This forecast reflects expectations about his schedule and travel patterns during a specific month, with the remaining 32% of probability distributed across zero visits, two visits, three visits, or four visits. The high concentration on the single-visit outcome suggests traders believe one trip is most likely based on his typical seasonal usage patterns and known commitments. Key drivers include his presidential schedule and any publicly announced events at the property. The probability will resolve definitively only after June 30, 2026, when visit records become verifiable. Until then, changes in announced schedules or reported visits would shift trader expectations substantially.
- ›Trump's publicly announced schedule for June 2026, including confirmed appearances and events at or away from the property
- ›Historical visit frequency to Bedminster during June in prior years as a baseline for typical behavior
- ›Current weather and seasonal factors affecting golf course conditions and travel appeal during that specific month
- ›Any officially reported visits or property activity documented during the June 1-30 window, which would narrow remaining uncertainty
- ›Scheduling conflicts or competing commitments that would affect his availability to visit the property
Recently closed in trump
- Will Donald Trump make between 80 and 99 Truth Social posts the week of Apr 19, 2026last 48% · 4d
- Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administrationlast 3% · 7d
- Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 25last 4% · 7d
- Will Trump say "Fort Trump" before Jul 1, 2026last 3% · 7d
- Donald Trump and Gavin Newsom meet before May 1, 2026last 7% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In trump
Related reading
Trump Sayings Market Explodes: 'TDS' Nearly Certain
The KXTRUMPSAY series has seen massive volume, with 'Trump says TDS' at 99¢ and 74k volume. These markets capture real-time political rhetoric and have become a unique prediction asset.
High-Conviction Bets on Trump Attending World Cup Final
Donald Trump attending the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final is priced at 88¢, among the highest conviction bets across all topics. This is a proxy for broader political event attendance and has implications for diplomatic optics and market sentiment. The market on his removal from office before 2029 remains low at 31¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.