Kash Patel out by...
Leader sits at 65% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
June 30
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$25K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Kash Patel out by
Analysis
This 38% probability reflects market expectation that Kash Patel will leave his position as FBI Director before a specified date (likely early June 2026). The market is pricing in meaningful but minority-level risk, suggesting traders see valid reasons for departure—whether through resignation, removal, or transition—but assess continuation as more likely. Key drivers include political developments affecting his tenure, personnel changes within the administration, and the inherent turnover rate for FBI leadership. The most concrete upcoming resolution point appears to be early June 2026, based on active contract pricing. Polymarket contracts show slightly higher probability (39%) than Kalshi (37%), a modest 2-point divergence suggesting reasonable consensus rather than sharp disagreement across venues.
- ›Kash Patel's current tenure stability and any public statements about his plans from him or administration officials
- ›Broader political circumstances that might necessitate or prompt FBI Director changes, including congressional oversight activities or investigations
- ›Historical turnover rate and average tenure length for FBI Directors in similar political environments
- ›Volume concentration: the most-traded Kalshi contract (17¢) focuses on before June 1, providing a specific resolution mechanism
- ›Cross-venue probability spread of only 2 percentage points indicates limited arbitrage opportunity and relatively stable market consensus
What moved the line
- Apr 29May 31↓16pp41→25¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29June 30↓15pp59→44¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29December 31↓9pp78→69¢ · Polymarket
- May 2May 31↓6pp21→15¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30June 30↓5pp44→39¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.