Will Emily Salsbury win the 2026 election for Mayor of Kelowna, British Columbia
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
44%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$112
2 contracts
Closes
Oct 17, 2027
388 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Tom Dyas win the 2026 election for Mayor of Kelowna, British Columbia
Will Tom Dyas win the 2026 election for Mayor of Kelowna, British Columbia?: Tom Dyas
KXKELOWNAMAYOR-26OCT17-TDYA
Cluster 2
Will Ron Cannan win the 2026 election for Mayor of Kelowna, British Columbia
Will Ron Cannan win the 2026 election for Mayor of Kelowna, British Columbia?: Ron Cannan
KXKELOWNAMAYOR-26OCT17-RCAN
Analysis
This 21% probability indicates market participants assess Emily Salsbury has roughly a one-in-five chance of winning Kelowna's mayoral election. The prediction reflects a crowded field where Ron Cannan leads at 62%, suggesting Salsbury faces significant competition. Her chances would shift based on campaign momentum, voter engagement in her ward or demographic groups, and any changes in candidate viability—particularly if frontrunners withdraw or consolidate support differently. The election outcome will be determined on voting day in October 2026, when actual ballots are cast. Until then, movements in this probability will likely track local media coverage, candidate announcements, and any public polling or endorsements that emerge during the campaign period.
- ›Ron Cannan holds 62% implied probability compared to Salsbury's 21%, indicating he is the clear frontrunner with nearly three times her market probability
- ›The presence of multiple viable candidates (Gray at 5%, Dyas at 15%, Salsbury at 21%) suggests vote splitting could occur, potentially benefiting any candidate perceived as gaining momentum
- ›Kelowna mayoral elections are primarily decided by local issues, incumbent performance, and community engagement—factors that may shift significantly between now and October 2026
- ›Trading volume on Salsbury's contract is low ($1 in 24h volume), meaning the 21% price may not reflect deep market liquidity or comprehensive analysis
- ›The election date in October 2026 provides a specific resolution point; campaign developments, endorsements, and any candidate withdrawals before then would be primary catalysts for probability movement
What moved the line
- Sep 19Ron Cannan↑40pp11→51¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Tom Dyas↑35pp1→36¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Tom Dyas↓33pp34→1¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Ron Cannan↓19pp20→1¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23Ron Cannan↓14pp51→37¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Left Party be the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag electionlast 13% · 4d
- Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%last 97% · 5d
- Will the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff be at least 6%last 97% · 5d
- Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 10 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026last 46% · 6d
- Who will win the 2026 Providence, RI mayoral electionlast 82% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (44% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
2026 Midterms Dominate: Over 2.1M Contracts Traded on 600+ Markets
Over 600 individual markets covering Senate, House, and gubernatorial races have traded more than 2.1 million contracts, with key battlegrounds in Texas, Ohio, and Michigan drawing the most volume. Traders are pricing Democrats as favorites to retake the House (91¢) while the Senate remains a toss-up (Democrats 64¢).
Midterm 2026 Markets Surge with Over 300 Contracts and $4M+ Volume
The 2026 midterm cycle is heating up with high-volume markets on House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. The current probabilities suggest a competitive environment, with key swing states like Texas, Iowa, and Michigan drawing the most action.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.