LaLiga
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
39%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$70
2 contracts
Closes
Jun 7, 2027
343 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Barcelona win La Liga
Will Barcelona win La Liga?: Barcelona
KXLALIGA-27-BAR
Cluster 2
Will Real Madrid win La Liga
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?: Real Madrid
KXLALIGA-27-RMA
Analysis
This 49% probability represents the market's assessment of a specific LaLiga outcome based on aggregated contract prices across 17 linked markets. The current leader trades just slightly ahead of the runner-up, indicating genuine uncertainty about the resolution. Movement in this probability would likely follow shifts in player performance data, team standings, or relevant regulatory announcements—with the most volatility expected around scheduled fixture dates and official LaLiga communications. The lack of a clear consensus reflects either balanced competing outcomes or incomplete information among market participants. Resolution depends on which specific LaLiga event the leading contract measures; the varied secondary contracts suggest multiple dimensions of the 2025-26 season are being priced simultaneously.
- ›Current leader holds only 1-percentage-point advantage over runner-up, indicating genuine competition between outcomes rather than dominant consensus
- ›Top-volume contracts span multiple LaLiga dimensions (relegation, goal-scoring races, Champions League qualification) rather than concentrating on a single outcome
- ›Mbappe top-goalscorer contract trades at 89¢ while another top-scorer option (Muriqi) trades at 12¢, suggesting concentrated confidence in one player but uncertainty across the field
- ›Polymarket volume ranges from $128 to $1301 in 24-hour trading, indicating inconsistent participant engagement across related outcomes
- ›Runner-up position at 48% means less than 2% swing in aggregate prices would reverse the current leader
What moved the line
- Jun 21Barcelona↓17pp61→44¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Real Madrid↑7pp31→38¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 27Barcelona↓4pp47→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Barcelona↑3pp44→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (39% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.