LaLiga
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 45% across 10 contracts. Kalshi at 7%, Polymarket at 49% — a 42pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
1 contract
Polymarket
49%
9 contracts
Cross-venue gap
42pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
10 contracts
Closes
May 23, 2028
745 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 7¢ · Polymarket 49¢ · 42pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (7¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (49¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated” vs “Will Real Madrid win the La Liga”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated
LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Sevilla
0x42ac3e…ce3f
LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Mallorca
0x888113…1362
LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Valencia
0xee0bbd…a6a9
LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Alavés
0xb6d673…07ea
LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Oviedo
0xbaaafe…df52
LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Espanyol
0xe14008…4f50
Cluster 2
Will Real Madrid win the La Liga
Will Real Madrid win the La Liga?: Real Madrid
KXLALIGA-26-RMA
Cluster 3
laliga: top goalscorer : kylian mbappe
LALIGA: Top Goalscorer : Kylian Mbappe
0xa449cd…56c7
Cluster 4
LaLiga: Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Real Betis
LaLiga: Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Real Betis
0x78ea3a…548f
Cluster 5
LaLiga: Most Assists: Lamine Yamal
LaLiga: Most Assists: Lamine Yamal
0x737a8c…05b7
Analysis
This 49% probability represents the market's assessment of a specific LaLiga outcome based on aggregated contract prices across 17 linked markets. The current leader trades just slightly ahead of the runner-up, indicating genuine uncertainty about the resolution. Movement in this probability would likely follow shifts in player performance data, team standings, or relevant regulatory announcements—with the most volatility expected around scheduled fixture dates and official LaLiga communications. The lack of a clear consensus reflects either balanced competing outcomes or incomplete information among market participants. Resolution depends on which specific LaLiga event the leading contract measures; the varied secondary contracts suggest multiple dimensions of the 2025-26 season are being priced simultaneously.
- ›Current leader holds only 1-percentage-point advantage over runner-up, indicating genuine competition between outcomes rather than dominant consensus
- ›Top-volume contracts span multiple LaLiga dimensions (relegation, goal-scoring races, Champions League qualification) rather than concentrating on a single outcome
- ›Mbappe top-goalscorer contract trades at 89¢ while another top-scorer option (Muriqi) trades at 12¢, suggesting concentrated confidence in one player but uncertainty across the field
- ›Polymarket volume ranges from $128 to $1301 in 24-hour trading, indicating inconsistent participant engagement across related outcomes
- ›Runner-up position at 48% means less than 2% swing in aggregate prices would reverse the current leader
What moved the line
- May 6Most Assists: Lamine Yamal↑45pp45→90¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Real Betis↓40pp79→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Most Assists: Lamine Yamal↓12pp90→78¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Real Betis↓11pp42→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Most Assists: Lamine Yamal↓9pp78→69¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.